[BunnyGo]

This was a club game with some special week going on, so there were better players than usual.

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My partner was off on the ogust response, but there we were in 3NT. Sadly, I got the expected low diamond lead. Do I now play spades from the top going for 6 tricks in spades (either stiff Q or Qx) or lead small to the J (picking up 5 tricks on any layout)?

Would you just have bid 4S?

[Siegmund]

The bigger picture: assuming its MP and many others will be in 4S your aim is to take the same number of tricks as those pairs. Since no ruffs in South are happening, take whatever you believe the normal line in 4S to be.

If you had entries, ace-first would be 100% for 5 tricks no matter what anyway. As it is, ace-first is going to be the normal line for the people in spades, so I think you have to do it anyway.

If your fear is the opps getting in twice to set up and then cash a diamond, all the more reason to try to bring the spades in without loss.

[BunnyGo]

Siegmund, on 2012-August-04, 10:05, said:

The bigger picture: assuming its MP and many others will be in 4S your aim is to take the same number of tricks as those pairs. Since no ruffs in South are happening, take whatever you believe the normal line in 4S to be.

If you had entries, ace-first would be 100% for 5 tricks no matter what anyway. As it is, ace-first is going to be the normal line for the people in spades, so I think you have to do it anyway.

If your fear is the opps getting in twice to set up and then cash a diamond, all the more reason to try to bring the spades in without loss.

Ace first does doom me to down a lot if it is a 4-0 break. Maybe this shouldn't be a big consideration, but I'll get only 3 spade tricks in this case.

[gszes]

the declarers in 4 spades will lay down the A first because they do not care a whit if
spades break 40 or not (assuming a dia lead that is) because they can pick up the spade
suit no matter which opp holds the 4 spades. YOU however cannot survive a 40 spade
break that way. Your best hope is to start small toward the J and hope the spades do not
break 22 or the stiff Q fall. You need to be able to score 5 tricks the same as declarer in
order to have a chance. Yes I would bid 4s since p might have had KQT987 and the
spade suit would be dead to you if Axx(x) exists.

[nigel_k]

If you have to lose a spade, you will probably do worse than the pairs in spades because opponent's will have a diamond winner or two to cash when you get around to setting up hearts. So I would just play for 6 spade tricks: cash one top spade and lead a heart. Then overtake the ♠J and pray for 2-2 spades and a good heart guess at the end.

[nige1]

BunnyGo writes "This was a club game with some special week going on, so there were better players than usual. My partner was off on the ogust response, but there we were in 3NT. Sadly, I got the expected low diamond lead. Do I now play spades from the top going for 6 tricks in spades (either stiff Q or Qx) or lead small to the J (picking up 5 tricks on any layout)? Would you just have bid 4S?"

Perhaps a compromise is possible: Win ♦K and lead a ♥ to ♥Q
Run ♠J unless covered. If it is covered, re-enter hand and finesse again
This loses 2 ♠ tricks when RHO has ♠ QT87 but makes at least 5 ♠ tricks against other layouts.
A possible advantage is that you make 6 ♠ tricks when RHO has a a small ♠ doubleton or a ♠ singleton (other than ♠Q). So occasionally, you do better than players in 4♠

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[CSGibson]

We are in a strongly anti-field contract, which is important to recognize playing matchpoints - the majority will be in 4S, with some enterprising souls maybe reaching 6, and others maybe in 3N like you, but those being outliers. A quick look at this shows that the expectation is that 4S is making easily, with as many as 12 tricks if things behave. Let's take the scenerios 1 by 1:

Spades are 4-0. 4S will likely lose 1 spade, potentially 1-3 hearts (3 if a doubleton heart is led & W ducks from AJxxx initially, with E having 4 spades) In NT you will rarely achieve equity whether the ace of hearts is onside or off, because they have the tempo to establish an extra diamond trick or two even with a safety play to ensure your contract.

Spades are 3-1, Q is not singleton, E does not have a stiff T - you are in a similar position to spades being 4-0 in terms of equity, you will not benefit from the safety play against 4S contracts, only against 3N and 6S contracts.

Spades are 3-1, Q is singleton, or E has a stiff T - now you are in a position to win some matchpoints from the 4S bidders, you have a chance to play for the same number of tricks, though it does involve risk in the heart suit. (ie, W can duck his ace the first time, now you are in a position to have to make a decision). The safety play costs all chance to win equity against 4S contracts, and also puts you behind BTTW (Balls to the wall) 3N contracts, with 6S contracts being irrelevant to this scenario, as your matchpoint position to those does not depend on your own actions.

Spades are 2-2 (losing the scenerio where E has QT by implication of the previous scenerio) - another position to win matchpoints from the 4S bidders if you play BTTW, but where the safety play costs all chance to win equity.

My own inclination would be to forego the safety play, because I don't see that winning many matchpoints against a typical field even when its right - the 4S bidders can all afford to lay down a high spade honor 1st and still pick up 4-0 breaks, so they will always benefit from the full score of the last two scenerios.

[nige1]

On reflection, I think siegmund, nigel_K, and CS Gibson are right

[rduran1216]

you lost this board in the auction. The only hope is to catch stiff Q or 2-2 spades to salvage the day. The Spade bidders are making 5 or 6 if the spades run you have a shot, if not you're screwed. So run em from the top. Going down and making 3 are the same board.

[wyman]

BunnyGo, on 2012-August-04, 08:39, said:

Would you just have bid 4S?

Yes. With a good suit and a bad hand, you sort of expected to be in this situation, no?

[wank]

nigelk has it right - you can't afford to lose a spade because then you'll probably lose a diamond.

[billw55]

rduran1216, on 2012-August-06, 12:27, said:

you lost this board in the auction.

BunnyGo, on 2012-August-04, 08:39, said:

Would you just have bid 4S?

Yes, direct over 2♠.

[han]

If you are planning to play spades from the top, I think that it may be better to play a heart to the king at trick 2. In order to beat the people playing in 4S you will need to take heart tricks anyway, so you may as well play them immediately. Some good things can happen. For example, knowing that the spades are running, RHO might step up with the ace of hearts to fire a diamond through, taking away your heart guess. You might also learn something that can make you change your mind.

[SteveMoe]

Agree postings by Chris and others. I would add that South is strong enough to bid game even opposite a real 3♦ response (assuming 8 losers). The question to think about is what hands can North have to make 3N a useful choice. I think we play 3N only after a 3♠ or 3N response to Ogust. Even 3♠ is iffy.