[jetkro]

Scoring: IMP

1 ♦ - ALL PASS.

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I passed with my strong NT at red vul and we missed a vulnerable game.
I didnt like my hand without a source of tricks or a long suit and I was worried about LHO possibly doubling me.
I cannot see how my partner is supposed to balance.
Was this an avoidable result or just one of those things?

[han]

I agree, I would bid 1NT. Not without worries, but I would bid it all the same

[Fluffy]

pass is the 'correct' bid since 1NT normally promises 16-18, a correct bid cannot be blamed, but sometimes there are better bids. To me it is a very very close decision.

Its also important to note than you have to be consistent with your bids, if you make a call that is suposed to have 16-18 and you have 15 you will obviously not pass a forcing bid later, but also (and sadly not always followed) when you pass you have decided you don´t have 16-18 balanced, and therefore you cannot bid like it when partner reopens. So even then you would miss a game if partner reopens with 1NT, if he does with 2♣ you maybe can rejudge a bit and get to game due to the good support.

So on the other hand North is also close to reopen with 2♣ or 1NT, it will depend more about the kind of opponents than on the cards, if opponent is the kind of guy who opens strong 2♣ with 17 HCP 6331, you have a clear reopening, but if he is the kind of guy who opens 1♦ with 23 HCP you better pass.

[EricK]

I wouldn't worry too much about this. For some this is a minimum 1NT overcall, for others this is a maximum pass. What that implies is your expected score (in a statistical sense) is about the same for each action. It also implies that whatever you choose will be right a lot of the time and wrong a lot of the time.

Anyway, what has happened here? You have missed a 23 point 3NT game which happens to make. If you swap the ♥9 with the ♥3 you would have avoided the 23 point 3NT game which goes down on a ♥ lead.

Eric

[Free]

What about a 1♠ overcall?

[Chamaco]

I think that even if you DID bid 1NT, your pard has - at best - an invitational hand (ugly ♠Jx and ♦Qxx, club 5 bagger not so good to upgrade the hand) not enough to force to 3NT.

So, your pard would have invited to 3NT (via 2NT or whatever quantitative invite you agreed upon), and you would have declined the invitation for the very simple reason you are subminimum for a 1NT overcall.

The Kaplan-Rubens hand evaluator (http://www.gg.caltec...u/~jeff/knr.cgi), one of the best tool to assess the value of balanced hands (recommended by most teachers on BBO for the evaluation of balanced hands) evaluates South's hand as 14.15 hcp, not even enough for 1NT overcall, let alone to accept the invitation.
K/R also assesses N's hand as worth 6.6 hcp, not even enough to invite to 3NT.

Bottomline: you would have missed game anyway, and in my opinion, it is the % choice to stay in a partscore, at any form of scoring and at any vulnerability.

After all, bidding 3NT with 23 hcp is not exactly a percentage choice (unless your card play is at the Meckwell level).

So I guess this one is one of those cold games that can be missed without too much regrets.

[Flame]

I like the change in response to this thread, i also think that its doesnt matter to much, you can bid you can pass, you can make you can go down, it is pure luck, and no decision is better then other.
No need to worry about the result because it will eventually even out.

[MickyB]

Chamaco, on Dec 19 2004, 03:12 PM, said:

The Kaplan-Rubens hand evaluator (http://www.gg.caltec...u/~jeff/knr.cgi), one of the best tool to assess the value of balanced hands

Although it is about right here, Kaplan-Rubens is poor at evaluating playing strength in NT - it is best used for suit contracts only. Thomas Andrew's evaluator together with Tysen's post suggest that in isolation, the direct seat hand is worth slightly more than 14hcp and the balancing hand is worth a bit over 8hcp.

[jetkro]

Is it reasonable to say the following?

I can safely pass this hand because if we have a game on then surely my pard will be able to reopen. So I miss nothing, and avoid a possible penalty.
In fact I like to play my 1NT overcalls as 16-18 or 17-19 as in Kaplan-Sheinwold.