[Phil]

J964
K753
J3
KQ4

KT5
AQ62
AK62
65

Pass 1c x pass;
2c pass 3h pass;
4h ap

1. C3(3/5) k, a
2. S2 (attitude), ?

[rogerclee]

Nice play from AQxx and a stiff heart, but Axxx is just more likely -- in theory, and certainly in practice.

Edit: Just to clarify, I didn't mean that Axxx is more likely than AQxx, it isn't, but Axxx and 2 or 3 hearts is certainly more likely than AQxx and 1 or 4 hearts, even though AQxx gives more freedom to the arrangement of the other HCP.

[cnszsun]

If trump doesn't break, will east lead from AQxx without knowing where 10 is? I guess unlikely.

[gnasher]

What do they open with 4=1=4=4? If the answer is 1♦, we know that trumps are breaking.

[JLOGIC]

4135?

[gnasher]

Sorry, I thought West had raised clubs.

[lamford]

We are not told the vulnerability. We know it was the first board of a match, but we do not know the match length, or whether it was board 1, board 7 or board 9, pretty much the only boards one can start a match with. As board 7 is dealer South, and we are not told the hands have been rotated for convenience, I will guess it was board 1 or 9. If East was vulnerable, he would be a big favourite to hold the queen of spades, as Axxx x Qxx AJxxx is quite light second in at adverse.

If it is board 1, love all, then he may well have that hand, and I rise as the good point of not knowing where the ten of spades is makes it hard to switch from AQxx.

[Phil]

rogerclee, on 2013-May-20, 00:11, said:

Nice play from AQxx and a stiff heart, but Axxx is just more likely -- in theory, and certainly in practice.

Edit: Just to clarify, I didn't mean that Axxx is more likely than AQxx, it isn't, but Axxx and 2 or 3 hearts is certainly more likely than AQxx and 1 or 4 hearts, even though AQxx gives more freedom to the arrangement of the other HCP.

Yep RHO had AQxx x xxx AJxxx.

[Phil]

cnszsun, on 2013-May-20, 01:20, said:

If trump doesn't break, will east lead from AQxx without knowing where 10 is? I guess unlikely.

I think this is an excellent point. Hard to calculate the Grosvnenor element here.

[gszes]

Rise with the K

If trumps are breaking 4/1 a continued club defense
seems completely obvious no matter holding Axxx or
AQxx in spades. There are limited dummy entries and
playing a club immediately forces declarer to decide
how to use this entry before gathering information on
the hand.

There is a legitimate defense if trumps are breaking 32
and that is rho trying to get a heart ruff for his hopefully
Hx partner by leading low from the A.

[rogerclee]

Phil, on 2013-May-20, 08:58, said:

I think this is an excellent point. Hard to calculate the Grosvnenor element here.

Well, in fairness if our hand was the same missing the ST we would make anyway on a neutral return, which complicates the problem a bit in theory. In practice it would be difficult for a defender to figure this out easily at the table.

[FrancesHinden]

lamford, on 2013-May-20, 06:28, said:

.., or whether it was board 1, board 7 or board 9, pretty much the only boards one can start a match with. ...

I've also started matches on boards 7, 8, 11, 13 and 21 (=5) among others.