[nige1]

PhilKing, on 2013-September-23, 08:26, said:

I may be being a bit thick (I've just finished a long plane trip), but this is my line:
Trick 1: ♣A
2: ruff a ♣
3: ♦ to the jack

If that holds, ruff another club, draw trumps and claim. You have four hearts, three diamonds and three clubs, and you make 12 tricks if diamonds break. This must cover some extra bases, such as East holding a 4414.

If it loses, you have to hope that diamonds are not 4-1, but you have extra transportation by playing zero rounds of trumps. Incidentally, I don't accept that West would bid 2♠ with Kxxx and the diamond queen. You go off here, but stiff queen is the only fly in the ointment barring a 5-0 trump break. Strange how seeing all 52 cards can lead one's analysis astray.

I prefer PhilKing's line to mine (in theory if not in practice). I didn't watch any of the boards on BBO, so far presented in this forum. Also, I pretend I'm at the table so think for only a minute or two before deciding a line; but no bell rang to tell the players at the table that the play is interesting. Whereas, we know that the board must be interesting to merit presentation here. Some of my pathetic efforts would work. Nevertheless, my lines are sub-optimum on every problem. And I haven't been playing high-pressure bridge for a week. My admiration for world-championship contenders increases even further

[PhilKing]

lamford, on 2013-September-23, 15:48, said:

I presume that on the "serious error" thread, where you voted for doubling being a serious error, you don't believe it is point-a-board, despite being told that. Alternatives are that the long plane ride affected your judgement, or you think that not doubling is the right game-theory action.

And I am not sure why a spade signal here makes it more likely that both red suits are 3-2.

No - second theory was correct. Did not notice it was BAM. I do think that holding an AK makes it more likely that they are bidding on a long minor, however (Baye's).

Deleted nonsense below. I now have a bug from plane trip and will comment only on bidding for a day or so.

[rhm]

Let's compare the two lines and let us ignore 5-0 breaks in the red suits.

The standard line is 2 rounds of trumps, diamond finesse, which I compare to Phil's line.

If the diamond finesse wins Phil line wins 100%
If the diamond finesse wins, only a 4-1 break in both red suits will kill the standard line most of the time (not always), that is still better than a 92% chance.

An advantage of less than 8% for Phil's line

If the diamond finesse looses Phil line needs both red suits to be 3-2, that is a 46% chance.
If the diamond finesse looses the standard line needs diamonds to be 3-2, that is a 68% chance.

An advantage of 22% for the standard line.

I do not know where the diamond queen is nor given the bidding what the chances are for the diamond finesse to win and my rough probabilities are approximate and among others ignore the bidding to some extent:

But it does not feel to me that Phil's line is for once an improvement at IMPs over the standard line.

Rainer Herrmann

[PhilKing]

I'm fading here, but when the diamond is offside and trumps are 4-1, how is the standard line winning over mine?

Note: this is a question rather than a comment.

[rhm]

PhilKing, on 2013-September-24, 04:53, said:

I'm fading here, but when the diamond is offside and trumps are 4-1, how is the standard line winning over mine?

Note: this is a question rather than a comment.

You have a point I overlooked: If the defense forces in spades the standard line has a problem when hearts are 4-1.
You need to guess the diamonds and the location of the ♦T, but at least you can get home.
When the diamond finesse fails and diamonds are 3-2 only West is likely to have four hearts.

Cash North remaining heart after the spade force.
If you believe West has 3 diamonds cash both diamonds and draw trumps.
If you believe West has ♦Tx go to the king of diamond and discard the ♦A on the ace of hearts.
If you believe West started with ♦xx, finesse the ♦9 and discard the ♦A on the ace of hearts.

If you ruffed a club early this line is not available.
But admittedly my previous calculation is wrong, since I will not get the above guesses right all the time when the defense does switch to spades.

RainerHerrmann

[nige1]

rhm, on 2013-September-24, 06:00, said:

You have a point I overlooked: If the defense forces in spades the standard line has a problem when hearts are 4-1.
You need to guess the diamonds and the location of the ♦T, but at least you can get home.
When the diamond finesse fails and diamonds are 3-2 only West is likely to have four hearts.
Cash North remaining heart after the spade force.
If you believe West has 3 diamonds cash both diamonds and draw trumps.
If you believe West has ♦Tx go to the king of diamond and discard the ♦A on the ace of hearts.
If you believe West started with ♦xx, finesse the ♦9 and discard the ♦A on the ace of hearts.
If you ruffed a club early this line is not available.
But admittedly my previous calculation is wrong, since I will not get the above guesses right all the time when the defense does switch to spades.

The auction started 1♦ (P) 1♥ (X). Arguably, that makes it more likely that the doubler is short in ♦.