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Introducing a new convention: Lee Two Diamonds

Poll: Introducing a new convention: Lee Two Diamonds (24 member(s) have cast votes)

Finesse or play to drop the king?

  1. Finesse (24 votes [100.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 100.00%

  2. Drop (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#141 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-February-16, 21:56

View Postmanudude03, on 2014-February-16, 03:32, said:

With the agreements given, I would just pass, but I think it is crazy for 3D to be michaels there.

View Postthe hog, on 2014-February-16, 19:53, said:

3D Natural. What's the problem? Why would you want 3D to be 5/5 Ms?

The problem is really quite simple. 75% of the time that the bidding gets opened with 2, opener will be holding a natural weak-two in diamonds.

Can someone kindly run a SIM for us on these probabilities:
1. Given that opener has opened a 6-card diamond suit, what is the probability that the player in the direct seat is holding the remaining 7-cards in the diamond suit? The probability has got to be really small.
2. Given that opener has opened a 6 or a 7-card diamond suit, what is the probability that the player in the direct seat is holding 5+/5+ cards in the majors? Logic tells me that the probability is much higher, although I have no idea what the actual number is.
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#142 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-February-16, 23:19

I really should not get involved in these discussions but....

"The problem is really quite simple. 75% of the time that the bidding gets with 2♦, opener will be holding a natural weak-two in diamonds."

So what?

"Given that opener has opened a 6 or a 7-card diamond suit, what is the probability that the player in the direct seat is holding 5+/5+ cards in the majors?"

Not that high.
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#143 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-February-18, 23:59

How about this hand from a club game:
South dutifully led a after the double, the only trick for the defence. When North doubled the final contract, the club finesse was earmarked to go through him.
2/15 tables got to slam, one in 6 and one in 6.
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#144 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 02:40

More guessing.... Make West's Q into the K (keeping the same shape) and you are in a hopeless contract, but I don't see how the bidding would be any different. North's second double is terrible. I don't really like his first either.

edit: Also, it looks like your opening lacks any way for responder to show club preference with values. Maybe you play 4H for it, but it all gets very messy.
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#145 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 03:19

View Postmanudude03, on 2014-February-19, 02:40, said:

Also, it looks like your opening lacks any way for responder to show club preference with values. Maybe you play 4H for it, but it all gets very messy.

No, its really quite simple:
1. With club preference without values, the 3 bid simply gets passed.
2. With club preference and values, 3 gets raised to 4.
3. With diamond preference without values, 3 gets corrected to 3 as a signoff.
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#146 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 03:22

So it is not 14+ HCP after all, but 14-17 or so?
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#147 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 04:43

Indeed, it sure sounded like a 3C bid could have been AK x AKJxx AKJxx and other similar hands.
Wayne Somerville
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#148 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 06:19

If you really want to nit-pick, then make it 14-21 HCP. 22+ HCP will probably go through the 2 bid.
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#149 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 06:43

Well, it's not a nitpick, it's just trying to understand whether your bids are forcing and what exactly you mean by 'values.' So what you mean is that you can pass 3 with something like Jxx xxx xxx Qxxx. With any hand that is stronger than that, responder is defined to have values. If so, did opener really have enough to force to slam? It seems like he would have bid 4 already with xxx xx Axxx xxxx, and with that hand slam is 0%. I repeat: slam is 0%, no slam is 100%.
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#150 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 06:50

14-21 is a huge, practically unplayable range at the 3 level. How do you bid

x
Kx
KQJxx
KQJxx

opposite

KQJ
xxx
xxx
xxxx

and many other worse fitting hands? If you are finishing in 3 then change Opener's hand to

xxx
-
AKQJx
AKQJx
(-: Zel :-)
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#151 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 07:14

Both are easy, signoff in 5 on a known 9-card trump fit. Some you will make, some you won't.
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#152 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 07:30

View Post32519, on 2014-February-19, 07:14, said:

Both are easy, signoff in 5 on a known 9-card trump fit. Some you will make, some you won't.

That is indeed easy. But I am afraid it will cost you on average 32519 IMPs/year.

Rik
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#153 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 07:40

View PostTrinidad, on 2014-February-19, 07:30, said:

That is indeed easy. But I am afraid it will cost you on average 32519 IMPs/year.

Rik


He keeps speaking of club games, so it will be closer to 32519 MPs/year.
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#154 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 07:55

View Post32519, on 2014-February-19, 07:14, said:

Both are easy, signoff in 5 on a known 9-card trump fit. Some you will make, some you won't.

On the first you go 2 or 3 off with the rest of the field in 2m or 3m. On the second you miss a slam that the majority of a decent field will find. It should perhaps tell you something that such a wide range of tricks is available on the same basic auction with no chance of differentiating - and these hands were not even the extreme cases.

You could improve things greatly by moving the 14-17 minor hands out of 2, probably into the 1 opening, and keeping these sequences for 18+. Now Responder is well placed to know what to do despite the lack of space.
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#155 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 08:03

I'm not convinced by either of your arguments. With the hands you posted, a lot will depend on partners judgement on whether or not to signoff in 3m or 5m.

Guaranteed you will get a major suit lead. With a major suit lead coming through Kx, the king is pretty useless. So with that sort of holding, partner is better off passing. Beef it up to KQ, KQ in both majors, you will make 5m more than failing. :)
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#156 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 08:24

It is hardly a surprise that game makes with 10 opposite a shapely 14-21 is it? Surely that hand would bid 4m rather than 5m too, which could lead to a no-play slam if partner is towards the top of the range. But the biggest problem comes from hands that have to keep the bidding open to take account of partner holding 21 but have no play whatsoever opposite 14, if for no other reason that those 14 point hands are comparatively common and are easy to handle in almost every other bidding system.
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#157 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 09:12

Just to spice up the argument, I ran some probabilities through BBOs deal generator. Here they are:
1. 0.18% probability of being dealt 5+/5+, 14+ HCP in the minor suits
2. 0.15% probability of being dealt 5+/5+, 14-17 HCP in the minor suits
3. 0.03% probability of being dealt 5+/5+, 18-21 HCP in the monor suits
4. The probability of being dealt 5+/5+, 22+ HCP in the minor suits is so remote that BBOs deal generator fails to spit out a number.

By far the majority of these types of hands are going to fall into the 14-17 HCP range. With that forming the basis of when to signoff in 3m or 5m with/without the appropriate hand by partner will assist him hugely.
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#158 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 09:24

Another way of saying this is that 1 in 6 times partner will misjudge. Everyone else in the room will be able to have completely normal auctions to the correct spot.
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#159 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 10:00

View PostZelandakh, on 2014-February-19, 09:24, said:

Another way of saying this is that 1 in 6 times partner will misjudge. Everyone else in the room will be able to have completely normal auctions to the correct spot.

Not in 32519's club :) His clubmates seem to misjudge at least 5 in 6 times, so his methods are great in comparison.
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#160 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 11:44

View PostZelandakh, on 2014-February-19, 09:24, said:

Another way of saying this is that 1 in 6 times partner will misjudge. Everyone else in the room will be able to have completely normal auctions to the correct spot.

Standard bidders will open the auction with 1 and jump to 3 second time round to show these sorts of hand patterns and HCP held. So you end up at the same level in the same bid second time round anyway.

However…
In the modern game, bidding is getting more and more aggressive. On iffish hands and favourable vulnerability, the opponent in the direct seat gets an opportunity to show a major suit on level-1. Every time he finds a fit with partner, pre-emptive jumps, cue-bid raises etc are all possible, jamming the auction before your side gets an opportunity to describe your hand pattern and HCP held effectively.

So…
If you still haven’t figured it out, by opening the bidding with (what is 25% of the time) an artificial 2 (the other 75% it is a natural 2), my side is gaining…
1. The whole of level-1 and 40% of level-2 has been taken away from the opponents. The player in the direct seat is less likely to enter the auction with an iffish hand. Often, that in itself gives an indication of the HCP spread.
2. In an uncontested auction, the bidding is forcing for one round. Depending on the actual hand pattern and HCP held by responder, he gets an uncontested first round bid to best describe his hand. These could be any of the following –
a. Pass with a hand completely useless outside of a contract. If he does pass, the player sitting in the fourth seat is under tremendous pressure to balance without any other natural or obvious bid available. Through passing the opening bid in third seat, the player sitting fourth can be pretty darn sure that he is running into one of the strong hand patterns SITTING BEHIND HIM!! Not nice!
b. Bid your longest major first
c. Bid 2NT with 10-13 HCP, suit length and HCP concentrated in the minors
d. Bid 3 with a single suited hand in clubs
e. Bid 3 with 10-13 HCP, guaranteed support for a 6-card major, as game invitational
f. Bid to the appropriate level with any single suited hand that is useless outside of the suit bid
g. Bid 3NT with 14-15 HCP, suit length and HCP concentrated in the minors
All these types of bids are saying something about your hand and govern how the auction will continue depending on the actual hand pattern opened.
3. 6-4 holdings in the majors, 10-15 HCP are rare. 4441 holdings with 16+ HCP are rare. 5-5 holdings in the minors, 14-21 HCP are rare. Natural weak-two’s in are more frequent. By lumping them all into one bid allows my side to reveal them all adequately in the continuation bidding, having taken away the whole of level-1 and 40% of level-2 from the opponents. I rate that as a big plus.
4. The defence to the bid will be heavily focused towards a natural weak-two suit having been opened. Never underestimate the annoying factor of a natural weak 2, annoying to the opponents, that is. These forums have plenty of actual hands where someone was faced with an awkward bid after a 2 opening.
5. After a takeout double in the direct seat, partner is no longer under any obligation to enter the auction. He may well be sitting with real values opposite a natural weak 2 waiting to see how the auction develops before extracting a juicy penalty double for our side?
6. The bid has as the anchor suit, and should therefore pass brown sticker regulations with flying colours. Even in the ACBL it should be declared legal. Compare that to all the ACBL fuss around the Multi!

The number of gains my side is going to achieve because of all the above, is going to outweigh your 1-in-6 ratio by a considerable margin.
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