[Wackojack]

This is MP Game all. You play that in this position an overcall of 1NT = (11)12-14.
Your bid. Would you do differently if it were IMP scoring?

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[eagles123]

I would pass

[wank]

pass at any form of scoring. i suppose i would have to bid if they were at fav.

[ahydra]

So when partner shows up with 10x Axxx J10xx QJx, we miss 3NT, instead collecting 300? Or partner has x Jxxxx 10xxx Ax + another non-spade and we miss 4H? If we were NV I could see pass being right but when we might have vul game on, I don't think we can afford to miss it.

People open regularly with 11, even vul, so there's still 12 HCPs unaccounted for - it's not unlikely that partner has a good share of those.

ahydra

[wank]

ahydra, on 2014-May-20, 09:15, said:

So when partner shows up with 10x Axxx J10xx QJx, we miss 3NT, instead collecting 300? Or partner has x Jxxxx 10xxx Ax + another non-spade and we miss 4H? If we were NV I could see pass being right but when we might have vul game on, I don't think we can afford to miss it.

People open regularly with 11, even vul, so there's still 12 HCPs unaccounted for - it's not unlikely that partner has a good share of those.

ahydra

you are aware that bidding a 50% vul game instead of collecting 300 is anti-percentage, right?

[aguahombre]

ahydra, on 2014-May-20, 09:15, said:

So when partner shows up with 10x Axxx J10xx QJx, we miss 3NT, instead collecting 300? Or partner has x Jxxxx 10xxx Ax + another non-spade and we miss 4H? If we were NV I could see pass being right but when we might have vul game on, I don't think we can afford to miss it.

People open regularly with 11, even vul, so there's still 12 HCPs unaccounted for - it's not unlikely that partner has a good share of those.

ahydra

On the examples you gave, and at all red, we might accidentally get to game with inspired continuations, or we might not. Then, there are all the other hands partner might have. Balancing with the given hand must be a disaster-prone action over the long run, IMO.

[ahydra]

First one:

X-2D
2NT-3NT (doubler wouldn't bother bidding 2NT on 15 opposite a minimum response)

Second is tougher unless partner has a sixth heart. Throw in the DJ then.

Both games should be better than 50%. On first one you might well get a spade lead; on the second one it's whether the diamonds come in for two losers, so if partner is 1552 you make if diamonds are 3-2, if 1642 (with ♦J10xx, maybe even J8xx) you should be fine.

Admittedly given our sizeable quantity of spades, the more likely scenario is a misfit opposite - perhaps a sim would reveal the odds.

Edit: what are opps like, and field strength? If opps are a bit frisky then yes pass will win more often at MPs. If they're middle-of-the-road then a 50% game is equal odds (top vs bottom) against a middle where field is strong.

ahydra

[mikeh]

1. This hand is not even close to being as strong offensively as we are conditioned to think of it as being. Were we to hold this as dealer, we'd be very optimistic....until we were told that LHO has 5+ spades and at least opening values, whereupon we'd downgrade the hand on offence.

2. MPs is about frequency of gain, not size of gain

Pass seems clear to me, but, as is often the case, even the clearest bridge decisions can work out poorly on any given hand.

[whereagles]

the hand screams "defend", but in practice passing often doesn't turn out as well as hoped for.

still, I pass.. with no great conviction

[ggwhiz]

Pass in a flash. At MP's I prefer my poor results to be unlucky rather than self inflicted.

[gszes]

We are way behind any pair that was able to make
a 1n overcall and that is bad news for such a good
hand. P hand will average around 4.5 hcp which means
we rate to own more than 1/2 of the deck. It seems
a shame that we will let the opps play 1s when on
average this is our hand (though not by much).

x

here will sometimes cause us to get buried but under
most conditions we should be able to survive intact
no matter what p bids (yes even 2c) since they are
very likely to be more distributional than normal.

The X also keeps alive the possibility of making game
since there is the same statistical chance p is near
the top of their pass as they are near the bottom.

I would advise caution since p seems destined to play
this hand and any lead from rho seems likely to benefit
their side rather than ours but if p bids 3c or 3d I will
bid 3n and if p bids 3h I will bid 4h and if by chance p
bids 1n I will bid 3n and leave all 2 level bids in
(except 2s that is where I will bid a happy 3n).

[mikeh]

gszes, on 2014-May-20, 16:25, said:

We are way behind any pair that was able to make
a 1n overcall

That means we are way behind some beginners somewhere. We can probably survive this bad board in a field in which players play a balancing 1N as 17 hcp.

[the hog]

gszes, on 2014-May-20, 16:25, said:

We are way behind any pair that was able to make
a 1n overcall and that is bad news for such a good
hand. P hand will average around 4.5 hcp which means
we rate to own more than 1/2 of the deck. It seems
a shame that we will let the opps play 1s when on
average this is our hand (though not by much).

x

here will sometimes cause us to get buried but under
most conditions we should be able to survive intact
no matter what p bids (yes even 2c) since they are
very likely to be more distributional than normal.

The X also keeps alive the possibility of making game
since there is the same statistical chance p is near
the top of their pass as they are near the bottom.

I would advise caution since p seems destined to play
this hand and any lead from rho seems likely to benefit
their side rather than ours but if p bids 3c or 3d I will
bid 3n and if p bids 3h I will bid 4h and if by chance p
bids 1n I will bid 3n and leave all 2 level bids in
(except 2s that is where I will bid a happy 3n).

Who plays a balancing x as 15-17? Certainly no one I know. I pass.

[Fluffy]

The fact partner doesn't understand 2NT as natural is just another reason to pass.

[dboxley]

I need to have my glasses checked, I thought it went 1♣ P P and wondered what the problem was...

[gszes]

mikeh, on 2014-May-20, 16:53, said:

That means we are way behind some beginners somewhere. We can probably survive this bad board in a field in which players play a balancing 1N as 17 hcp.

I hate to say it but if I was playing with most of this field of posters (that want to
pass) I would vastly prefer playing 1N 15-17 than weak because we will just plain miss
too much.

[Winstonm]

I think I am screwed, but unless LHO has done something uncommon, like opening a bad 10-count, I am in the same boat as the field. The problem here is that I have no great conviction that 1S can be defeated, but also no conviction that our side can make more than +90 in 1NT. As it is impossible to play in 1NT in this auction, I have to settle for the best result possible rather than the best possible result.

I don't want to play 2NT, so I pass. What else can we do?

[aguahombre]

Many people believe that when balancing vs 1S (P) P, the floor and ceiling of a 1NT balance are higher than they would be over other 1x openings. A Max of 16 is common, so this 17 isn't quite as beginnerish as portrayed above. I just think 1NT is inferior to Pass for the reasons others do.

[Wackojack]

---

I was sitting North and 1♠ duly went one off for +100.

This was a MP club night. 9 tables. Other results: 1x+660, 1x+630, 2x+180, 2x+150, 1x+100 (us), 2x-100(2♠-1) So a 25% score.

Interesting that 3N wont make on best defence whereas 4♥will.

At the time I was mildly critical of my partner, (wrongly I realise now). In teams however, the reward of a vulnerable game is so great that I think a double must be superior to pass.

[blackshoe]

I really, really, hate to pass out a hand at the one level, so my first inclination was to double. Then I read the comments, and became convinced that pass is right. It might be interesting to run a sim, though, to see how often pass might work out well.