[lamford]

gnasher, on 2014-May-26, 02:13, said:

Having more of the opponents strength on the right makes the low club lead safer, because it reduces the chance that you'll find Hxx in dummy and the other honour in declarer's hand. Though I woudn't be looking for much logic in the thoughts of someone who'd think of not leading AJ9xx in an unbid suit against 3NT.

Not so. Assuming the points are distributed, say, 15-10, the most likely distribution is Kx(x) on your right and Qx(x)on your left. Less likely is Qx(x) on your left and Kx(x) on your right. Coming in third is KQx on your right with xx(x) on your left, while fourth is KQx on your left with xx(x) on your right. Then we have the ones with partner having the K or Q of the suit. You may still need to find partner with an entry, and you know that West will know that any major suit entry which partner has may be neutralised. If West has the ace of diamonds, then he will not expect his partner to have an entry.

And I think that most would not lead from AJ9x without a fifth card, which is enough to make the queen the right play from dummy at trick one.

[PhilKing]

lamford, on 2014-May-26, 08:36, said:

And I think that most would not lead from AJ9x without a fifth card, which is enough to make the queen the right play from dummy at trick one.

A lot players won't lead from a non-sequential four-card minor ever on this auction, so I don't see how this is relevant.

And from AKxx, were one to force me to lead the suit, I would lead high.

[lamford]

PhilKing, on 2014-May-26, 09:09, said:

A lot players won't lead from a non-sequential four-card minor ever on this auction, so I don't see how this is relevant.

Because AJxx or AJ9x are holdings where low may gain over the queen, and West will probably not have those. Anyway we are told (admittedly hearsay) that Meckstroth played the queen because he was worried about a potential diamond switch, although you thought East would never find one when it was right.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2014-May-24, 06:20, said:

Apologies if you know the hand, from NewinBridge, and apologies if it has already appeared - I did not see it on a quick look through. The auction was, surprisingly, the same in both rooms, and the lead was the same, the six of clubs. Two world-class players played differently here. Which card do you play from dummy at trick one and why?

---

Thank you, Paul. IMO ducking is the percentage play, because, as everyone says:

• If LHO has ♦A and RHO can win a ♣ trick and RHO finds the diamond switch, then you will normally lose at least 2 X ♣ and 3 X ♦. Hence if LHO has ♦A, then the main hope, at double-dummy, is to play LHO for ♣AK as well. If RHO has doubleton ♣AK/AJ/KJ, he has little choice but to switch to a ♦.
• If RHO has ♦A, then ducking the ♣ wins when LHO has ♣J and when RHO has ♣AKJ tripleton or doubleton ♣AJ/KJ or a singleton ♣.

[nige1]

Fluffy, on 2014-May-26, 00:33, said:

I would insta lead AJ9xx, do people really refrain from leading a strong 5 card suit in this bidding?

A player in hearing-aid radio-contact with a friendly kibitzer, might try ♣J

[PhilKing]

lamford, on 2014-May-26, 09:38, said:

Because AJxx or AJ9x are holdings where low may gain over the queen, and West will probably not have those. Anyway we are told (admittedly hearsay) that Meckstroth played the queen because he was worried about a potential diamond switch, although you thought East would never find one when it was right.

But he probably won't have AKxx either, so why is this relevant?

And please show layouts on which a competent East will switch.

[gszes]

Sighhhhhhhh my ability to think deeply into a hand has obviously
dwindled as time goes on. I would have risen with the Q with little
to no thought since I had a 25% (and I personally think it is higher
than 25) chance of making 3n right then and there while ducking would
probably result in losing at least 2 clubs and 3d since rho has a
strong chance of having longish diamonds especially if lho has 5 clubs
since rho is then (probably) short in hearts and clubs making a dia
switch a lot easier. Ducking even if it is "right" due to the lie
of the cards on this hand will almost always get a switch and a
dia has to be a heavy favorite looking at that dummy.

[gnasher]

lamford, on 2014-May-26, 08:36, said:

Not so. Assuming the points are distributed, say, 15-10, the most likely distribution is Kx(x) on your right and Qx(x)on your left. Less likely is Qx(x) on your left and Kx(x) on your right. Coming in third is KQx on your right with xx(x) on your left, while fourth is KQx on your left with xx(x) on your right. Then we have the ones with partner having the K or Q of the suit. You may still need to find partner with an entry, and you know that West will know that any major suit entry which partner has may be neutralised. If West has the ace of diamonds, then he will not expect his partner to have an entry.

Consider these two situations:
(1) LHO has 13 HCP and RHO has 13 HCP
(2) LHO has 10 HCP and RHO has 16 HCP
If which of these two situations am I more likely to find Hxx on my left and Hxx on my right?

Once you have worked out that the answer to that is (1), tell me why you wrote "especially with a strong NT on their right" in post no 15

[lamford]

gnasher, on 2014-May-26, 14:00, said:

tell me why you wrote "especially with a strong NT on their right"

Because the lead from AJ9x(x) can both cost a trick when the honours are split, and can give declarer his ninth trick when he has the king, and with a strong NT on his right, declarer is more likely to have the king. The combined chance of costing a trick is clearly greater with a strong NT on his right. "Split honours" is only part of the downside of leading the suit.

And I have got bored with this thread and will not post on it again. I agree with Meckstroth and wank, and disagree with gnasher and PhilKing. And I do not have the time or inclination to keep posting.

[PhilKing]

I have to say that's a pretty lame reply.