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Please Settle An Argument Opening Lead

#1 User is offline   Trump Echo 

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Posted 2014-July-21, 16:28

The ops bid uncontested to 6 Spades. All four suits had been bid.

I hold:

S 8
H K10632
D K432
C K72

I am sitting as South.

Edit:

West opened from first seat and the bidding went:

1D - 2S
3H - 4C
4S - 4NT
5H - 5NT
6D - 6S

I could have asked about the 2S but I didn't. Turns out East had only 12 hcps but long Spades to the AJ10xxx.

What's my opening Lead?

Thank-you
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#2 User is offline   masse24 

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Posted 2014-July-21, 16:34

8
“Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.” George Carlin
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#3 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-July-21, 17:01

spade eight
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#4 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2014-July-21, 17:54

Is there anything you can glean from the auction? Which hand is the big hand or are they both equal? Is there a likely running side suit where losers can be pitched? Are they possibly planning on a crossruff? Who has what controls?

If the auction indicates RHO has the big hand, the hand will be played on a crossruff, or the auction yields no info at all, 8 . With the big hand to your right, let declarer do the work to make the contract by making a passive lead. A trump lead versus a crossruff often leaves declarer a ruff short.

If LHO has a big hand or shows a strong side suit (likely via 1 - 2 or apparent 2 suited fits), then maybe you should consider an attacking lead of a low or a low . With LHO holding the big hand, it's more likely that any required finesses will work.
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#5 User is offline   TWO4BRIDGE 

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Posted 2014-July-21, 17:54

The Spade
Don Stenmark
TWOferBRIDGE
"imo by far in bridge the least understood concept is how to bid over a jump-shift
( 1M-1NT!-3m-?? )." ....Justin Lall

" Did someone mention relays? " .... Zelandakh

K-Rex to Mikeh : " Sometimes you drive me nuts " .
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#6 User is offline   wanoff 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 01:45

Anything could be right.
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#7 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 02:16

At first I thought a club lead would be the worst lead but it may not be so silly - even if I am leading towards declarer's AQx or similar, which seems quite likely, it probably doesn't cost as declarer can pitch clubs on dummy's red suits anyway. OTOH a red suit lead could be costly if declarer has the queen and partner the jack. Finally, a trump lead could be costly if partner has Qxx or Jxxx.

So anything could be wrong. With so many points it is probably not worthwhile trying to find partner's queen since he probably doesn't have any. Better to try to find the safest lead. But it is not clear what that is.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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#8 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 02:27

View Posthelene_t, on 2014-July-22, 02:16, said:

At first I thought a club lead would be the worst lead but it may not be so silly - even if I am leading towards declarer's AQx or similar, which seems quite likely, it probably doesn't cost as declarer can pitch clubs on dummy's red suits anyway. OTOH a red suit lead could be costly if declarer has the queen and partner the jack. Finally, a trump lead could be costly if partner has Qxx or Jxxx.

So anything could be wrong. With so many points it is probably not worthwhile trying to find partner's queen since he probably doesn't have any. Better to try to find the safest lead. But it is not clear what that is.


If I'm leading a club, I'm leading the K, stiff Q might appear on the deck opposite declarer's Ax.., or declarer might have AJ10, but I only expect dummy to have one club.

Spade could easily pick up partner's Jxxx although could be right anyway.

Question to ask, does 3 over 2 show extras ?

2 comes into the mix also, it's possible this may look like a singleton to declarer, so when dummy decks with AQJxx(x) he may go elsewhere for tricks. I'd reject it because it's very likely anywhere else he goes will work (heart finesse, ruffing club finesse), although you might make K and a trump.
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#9 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 07:22

The passive 8 is tempting, but this feels like a hand where I need a cashing trick when I get in. LHO seems short in clubs, so no tricks there. I will try a through dummy, declarer may hop up the ace, not wanting to risk a finesse at trick 1.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#10 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 07:31

I lead my singleton heart 2.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
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#11 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 09:46

View PostWinstonm, on 2014-July-22, 07:31, said:

I lead my singleton heart 2.

while faking a shortness lead away from a king is a common and often successful gambit, one shouldn't generally lead the 2 if one can help it, since it is consistent with a length lead, so one usually leads a high spot...either the 6 or the 10. However, this ploy rarely works when declarer rates to be short and opener hasn't shown real length. If I were faking a singleton lead, it would be in diamonds, since opener's diamonds will be as long as or longer than his hearts.

At the table, I'd know if the auction promised they held the spade Q. The OP info about declarer's suit makes it clear that they don't play keycard, but at the same time, opener shouldn't hold Kxx in trump, which is the only holding on which our spade lead picks off partner's trumps. I mean, who doesn't raise spades immediately with that?

Hint to the OP: don't tell us anything about the opposing hands if you want an unbiased answer. I already 'know' with some certainty that I can lead a trump safely. Absent that knowledge, I'd be afraid of picking off Jxxx in partner's hand on a layout such as xx opposite AKQ10xx, a holding consistent with the auction.

As best as I can rationalize, pretending I don't know declarer's hand, I proceed more or less by elimination. I rule out a club. It could work, as could just about anything, but the auction suggests no club values in dummy and so too much risk of AQ in declarer. Meanwhile, my reds are long and strong enough that declarer may not be able to get enough pitches and may need the losing club hook. Of course, partner may hold the Q:)

I won't lead a trump. Leading stiff trumps when partner could have a useful holding is generally very poor in my experience

So it comes down to a red card.

I am leading a heart: the 6. Not to fake shortness but to fake passivity. Either red suit may blow a trick but a diamond is more likely to blow a trick and a tempo.

But this is a crapshoot, absent the hint, which makes a trump far more attractive than it would be in real life. (I am not suggesting the spade leaders were influenced by the hint, btw....they may not have drawn the same inferences as I did)
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#12 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 10:07

I lead a low club, my hopes are that declarer misses Q or J and has a key red ace where my king scores. Impossible since you said declarer had 12 HCP and AJ, but that's what I would lead.
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#13 User is offline   Trump Echo 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 16:06

I tried to reason with my partner. I explained that no lead was a good lead, and the best I could do was make a lead that was the least bad as possible. But she was adamant that my lead was a blatant error and threatened to break off the partnership (for the 99th time) if I didn't agree.

I still didn't agree. But I agreed to make a different lead in similar circumstances the next time, to appease her. This wasn't good enough. She insisted I agree with her. She insisted my lead cost us a trick.

I'll post my lead and all the gory details tomorrow. :D
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#14 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 16:24

View PostTrump Echo, on 2014-July-22, 16:06, said:

I tried to reason with my partner. I explained that no lead was a good lead, and the best I could do was make a lead that was the least bad as possible. But she was adamant that my lead was a blatant error and threatened to break off the partnership (for the 99th time) if I didn't agree.

I still didn't agree. But I agreed to make a different lead in similar circumstances the next time, to appease her. This wasn't good enough. She insisted I agree with her. She insisted my lead cost us a trick.

I'll post my lead and all the gory details tomorrow. :D


I would definitely encourage, in fact I would insist on it, her to follow through on breaking up the partnership. Even if I thought that the correct lead was obvious (I don't) I would accept that you don't.
Ken
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#15 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 16:32

lol found the hand on bbo hand records

Quote

She insisted my lead cost us a trick.


Spoiler

"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#16 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-July-22, 16:49

View PostTrump Echo, on 2014-July-22, 16:06, said:

she was adamant that my lead was a blatant error


Anyone that claims that it is "obvious" to lead (or not to lead) a particular card with this hand is a results merchant.

Ok, leading one of the kings seems bad, but other than that you get the point.

Incidently, if you're leading from a king, better lead from the shortest one. You might still take a trick with that king later. The longer the suit, the less likely it is you can make it later.
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#17 User is offline   Trump Echo 

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Posted 2014-July-24, 05:12

I could not discern the location of any aces or queens or tenaces, so I figured each of my Kings had about an even chance of winning a trick. So as it stands holding 3 Kings, I have about an even chance of winning two tricks - unless I lead away from a King. I don't know what my partner holds in trumps, but I do know what I hold. So I led a trump.




Thanks for your help! :D

This post has been edited by diana_eva: 2014-July-24, 07:28
Reason for edit: Included Antrax's diagram here, deleted Antrax's post

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#18 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-July-24, 05:36

It looks to me like a partnership discussion on when not to play third hand high might be more beneficial than one about opening leads.
(-: Zel :-)
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#19 User is offline   Antrax 

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Posted 2014-July-24, 05:38

You'll note the mistake is your partner's. He should've played low to trick 1, thus eventually scoring the trump Q.
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#20 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2014-July-24, 05:40

snp, Zel and Antrax were before me.

Btw I had a very similar discussion with a beginner once at a club in Amsterdam. She was very upset that her partner finissed her trump queen on the opening lead as she thought p should have known that dummy was void so declarer wouldn't be able to take the finesse by herself. I tried to explain to her that holding Qxxx of trump and dummy being void and declarer having shown great length in the suit, she should have played low. She insisted that "3rd hand plays high". It took me a long an frustrating discussion before I finally realized that she had interpretted the "3rd hand high" lesson from her teacher as a bridge law, i.e. that playing low in third seat would have been a revoke.
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