Posted 2014-September-14, 23:38
I held off on answering to give more I/A players a shot, but I don't see a lot of answers.
The hand is cold if the heart hook wins, so start by assuming it is off. Now we are in danger of losing 4 red tricks.
I don't see any sure thing, but here's what I would do:
Ruff the lead high, cross in trump and lead a diamond to the K. If it loses, then the heart K is onside and we are cold, so assume the K holds.
Cross back in trump, hopefully pulling the last one, and lead a low diamond.
If N has Ax, then the Ace pops and we are cold.
So assume either N or S wins cheaply.
S can't play hearts profitably, so ignore him....we are cold if diamonds are 3-3.
Assume then that N wins the cheap diamond.
If diamonds are 3-3, the best N can do is switch to a heart, but we play low.
Even if S has KJx, he wins the J and has no quick entry to N for a second lead, other than diamonds, and if he plays a diamond to partner's Ace, he has set up our long diamond and we spurn the heart finesse the 2nd time. The need to be able to get back to our hand in trump is a reason for not having played to eliminate clubs.
Basically, we go down only when N has an unlikely 4 card diamond suit, and even then we make if the heart K is onside...note that N won't switch to a heart from the J if he has 4 diamonds...he can keep playing minors.
Note also that on most hands that look like this one does, it is often good technique to eliminate the club suit, but that would be a mistake here, because our entries to our hand are limited and we need to play diamonds from our hand and may also need to be able to get back to our long diamond when the suit is 3-3.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari