[Jinksy]

At IMPs (St Petersburg) LHO bids 3♦ and it's passed twice around to this:

x
AKQJ9xx
AQx
xx

Similar, but rather importantly different from the hand I originally gave! What's your call here?

(I completely messed up the original thread by getting the minors the wrong way around)

[whereagles]

4♥. Preempts work.

By the way, you can make two polls in the same post. Maybe you wanna try that next time (one for V, other for NV).

[ahydra]

Looks like textbook 4H bid.

ahydra

[Jinksy]

Yeah, hopefully my comment from the other thread makes more sense now:

A bunch of decent players gave me funny looks when it drifted one off after P put down AJT9xxx T Tx Kxx, and on a C lead and D switch, I couldn't find a way to get rid of the ♦ loser.

[Bbradley62]

So, RHO won ♣ not with the A, returned a diamond won by LHO's J and he returned a trump?

[ArtK78]

4♥ is the obvious call. I expect to make 10 or more tricks in hearts at least 85% of the time. Quite frankly, I am more worried about missing a slam than about going down in game.

[msjennifer]

4H are my bids ( NV or Vul). I have to assume something.I am an aggressive bidder and since I can't see all 52 cards I shall always bid 4Hearts .It does not matter if I go down.

[BillPatch]

By the way, if you reopen in fourth seat, you are in front of preemptor's hand.

[Jinksy]

ArtK78, on 2014-December-01, 10:36, said:

4♥ is the obvious call. I expect to make 10 or more tricks in hearts at least 85% of the time. Quite frankly, I am more worried about missing a slam than about going down in game.

I agree that it's the obvious call. That said, I wasn't mega-surprised given the running suit and stop in theirs that 3N is a much better game than 4H (laydown if P can play it), so I was wondering if anyone could offer a reason to find it.

Also, 85% seems very optimistic to me. I have 5 losers that I need P to cover 2+ of. The KD opposite is very unlikely, and any outstanding aces are likely to be with RHO, so my best chances of a good game are finding P with two bullets, or a stiff D and three trumps, or a bullet, stiff D and two trumps. None seem that likely, though I'd be surprised if they didn't easily sum to enough for it to be a good teams bid.

[Jinksy]

Bbradley62, on 2014-November-30, 22:07, said:

So, RHO won ♣ not with the A, returned a diamond won by LHO's J and he returned a trump?

I didn't give him a chance to win the diamond. If I had, the foreseeable D ruff would have killed the contract much quicker.

[WellSpyder]

Jinksy, on 2014-December-01, 18:58, said:

I agree that it's the obvious call. That said, I wasn't mega-surprised given the running suit and stop in theirs that 3N is a much better game than 4H (laydown if P can play it), so I was wondering if anyone could offer a reason to find it.

I picked 3N NV, on the grounds that it was the most likely game to make. I was worried about all those 100s when V if I was wrong, though, since it could go very wrong when it went wrong, so I chickened out with 4H, like most others. But I wasn't entirely convinced by my own choices or reasons in either case.....