[benlessard]

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Imps, your partnership style is to open the majority of 11 count.
I do not know if EW are agressive bidders but its from the open trials.

[nige1]

 benlessard, on 2015-June-28, 18:21, said:

Imps, your partnership style is to open the majority of 11 count.
I do not know if EW are agressive bidders but its from the open trials.

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Prefer pass to 2N. If overcaller might have a grotty 11 count, anything other than pass seems brave. I like to play that 2-level overcalls are intermediate (roughly a good opening bid with a 6-card suit). With that old-fashioned agreement, you might risk 2N.

[Phil]

I know the hand but I either pass or bid 3 ♦. Not 2N.

[PhantomSac]

bidding 3D instead of 2N makes absolutely no sense to me as a passed hand in a system where we open "a majority of 11 counts."

[aguahombre]

 PhantomSac, on 2015-June-28, 21:54, said:

bidding 3D instead of 2N makes absolutely no sense to me as a passed hand in a system where we open "a majority of 11 counts."

Yes, but would you bid 2N or would you pass? I would have guessed your choice to be pass.

[Mbodell]

I voted for "pass is slightly better than pass", which probably needed a 2nt there the second time. I also choose pass the first time I saw this hand.

[wank]

I can't see any reason not to bid 2n. There is a game bonus available.

[mikeh]

I pass.

I can't construct many hands where we make 2N and partner won't/shouldn't bid 3N. IOW, if he passes my 2N, we are almost surely failing, and on some of those we make 2 or 3 diamonds.

Meanwhile, the lack of any real fit means that our hand isn't as helpful as we'd like. Being a passed hand is largely irrelevant....we make our invites based on how our hand looks, not on whether we have passed or not. Sure, we no longer have a good to decent 11, but all that means is that we are showing a great 9 to a bad 11, and we don't hold that. I'd be far more tempted if we moved a small club into the diamond suit, since partner will usually hold a 6 card suit or a very chunky 5 bagger, and the extra 'x' could well be no only a trick but a tempo.

[apollo1201]

Not an expert, I voted for pass is slightly better. I am not going to write a lot since Mikeh pointed out my fears. A bit weakish with unsufficient D fit. Even if 2NT makes, my partner will raise me to 3 and he needs to be very maximum for a chance to make. And if he passes 2NT I will change +90 or 110 into -100 or 200 way too often.

[Jinksy]

I want to vote for 'pass is slightly clearcut'. I'd think about acting, but for all the reasons Mike gave, game is a long way off (and getting doubled in 2N isn't).

[benlessard]

I just dont understand pass. Not only 2NT might be a better contract than 2D after a S lead but passing aim for a narrow target. The target is 2D by us will make but 2M by them or 2NT by us will fail. If partner raise 2NT to 3NT we have no reasons to be ashamed of our hand; we have 2 stoppers and 2 cards in partner suits we may even have a secret weapon with our Q9873 of clubs (if partner got extra values but so-so diamonds).

I guess 2NT may cost undertricks but im not willing to miss a vul game for that. Its a 1S in 3rd seat and partner overcall 2D vul knowing im a passed hand. I dont mind agressive overcalls so im ok in giving him some leeway but he may easily have 15-17 pts and we could make 3nt+2. The fact that east wasnt able to make a negative double and im short in hearts increase the odds that partner overcall is sound.

In general Inv that stay at the same level and that may even improve the contract do not need to be rock solid.

[mikeh]

 benlessard, on 2015-June-29, 14:37, said:

I just dont understand pass. Not only 2NT might be a better contract than 2D after a S lead but passing aim for a narrow target. The target is 2D by us will make but 2M by them or 2NT by us will fail. If partner raise 2NT to 3NT we have no reasons to be ashamed of our hand; we have 2 stoppers and 2 cards in partner suits we may even have a secret weapon with our Q9873 of clubs (if partner got extra values but so-so diamonds).

I guess 2NT may cost undertricks but im not willing to miss a vul game for that. Its a 1S in 3rd seat and partner overcall 2D vul knowing im a passed hand. I dont mind agressive overcalls so im ok in giving him some leeway but he may easily have 15-17 pts and we could make 3nt+2. The fact that east wasnt able to make a negative double and im short in hearts increase the odds that partner overcall is sound.

The fact that RHO didn't raise spades and didn't make a negative double increases the odds that RHO is very, very happy to defend diamonds Maybe, and this has been known to happen, LHO has length in both majors! Maybe LHO is 6=5=1=1 and RHO is 2=3=4=4 with xx QJx Q109x Kxxx. I mean, if we are going to base our bidding decisions on the chance that we are cold for 11 tricks, why not posit partner having say x xxx AKJxxx AJx, a clear 3N raise, followed by a clear double, and on a good day down only 800.

Obviously that doesn't mean that one should infer that RHO has diamonds well under control or, indeed, any other specific layout. My point is that it is a common characteristic of those advocating for their choice to see only the arguments that support the choice they want to make, and to ignore or minimize arguments that run counter to their choice.

Thus we have Ben and wank pointing out the truism that bidding (and making) a game carries a nice bonus, as if none of us who chose pass understood that. Wank implicitly and Ben explicitly minimize the chances of a bad outcome.

Ben notes that partner could have 15-17 hcp, and dismisses LHO as a third seat opening bid, thus implicitly light. However, in the real world, players who open 1♠ in third chair have sometimes held as many as 15-17 hcp....I could swear that I have seen even stronger hands!

Of course bidding 2N could work. No bridge player would argue otherwise and I infer from the fact that Ben posted the hand as a question and that he now strongly argues for action that either he made the 2N call in real life and it backfired (so he is seeking to avoid blame), or that he was the 2♦ bidder and his partner passed and they missed a game (and he is seeking to cast blame).

Maybe I am wrong, and he simply thought that this was an interesting question, which I think it is.

Quote

In general Inv that stay at the same level and that may even improve the contract do not need to be rock solid.

That is frankly idiotic. We don't make invites to improve the partscore. We make invites because we hope that partner will accept, which means that we need to have a hand that justifies making the invite. When, as here, we have (at best) borderline values, we need to take into account the bad things that can happen as well as the good. My take, and that of the others who vote pass, is that the bad likely outweighs the good. FWIW, the outcome of any given hand won't be of much use, whether it justifies pass or 2N. Forming bridge judgement, which is what this hand is all about, cannot be based on small samples, and one hand is the smallest sample possible.

[benlessard]

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That is frankly idiotic. We don't make invites to improve the partscore. We make invites because we hope that partner will accept,

You got this part wrong. The goal of 2NT or of any bids is to improve our equity. Your equity is partially based on all the possible outcome of your actions so you have to take into account all the possible consequence of your bids when your inviting.

EX inviting by raising from 2S to 3S will cost when 2S is the limit and 3S is minus one. But inviting via XYZ 1D-1S-1NT-2C-2D-2S INV with long spades vs just repeating 2S not invitationnal do not bear the same cost. Sometimes getting from 2Y to 2Nt is costly since 2Y might be a much better contract but sometimes 2NT will be an equivalent or even a better contract than 2Y so the downsides of bidding 2NT is greatly diminished. Sometimes bidding 2NT will stop them from finding 3M that could make or go down.

Quote

FWIW, the outcome of any given hand won't be of much use, whether it justifies pass or 2N. Forming bridge judgement, which is what this hand is all about, cannot be based on small samples, and one hand is the smallest sample possible.

You have 9000+ post here and probably 20+ years of bridge and you feel you need to write this ? I dont know if i should feel insulted or just laugh.

[mikeh]

 benlessard, on 2015-June-29, 15:47, said:

You have 9000+ post here and probably 20+ years of bridge and you feel you need to write this ? I dont know if i should feel insulted or just laugh.

do whatever makes you feel best

However, you might want to consider that even when I am specifically quoting your post, my comments are not always aimed exclusively at you. I am sure that you have encountered a lot of well-meaning players who, when asking a question of an expert, argue that a result on a board has useful implications for how one ought to bid such boards. So my comment, which you fear was an insult to you, wasn't aimed at you.


You remind me of Arend in this regard....you think everything I write is aimed at you or players of similar stature, when my (to you) insultingly simple explanations are aimed at less experienced players, many of whom (from the feedback I get) never post here but read regularly.

Edit: does the fact that you say I got my last comment wrong mean that my speculations about why you posted were correct?

[aguahombre]

 benlessard, on 2015-June-29, 15:47, said:

I dont know if i should feel insulted or just laugh.

Sometimes we don't have to choose; we can have both.

[gszes]

2n has several advantages.
1. Keeps game in play.
2. Invests a level to explore (p may be able to safely run from 2n to 3d rather than pass).
3. The fact that our hand has been limited by our initial pass allows for decent prospect appraisal by p.
4. Our 9 count is actually pretty decent with at least 1 if not 3 entries and a side 5 card suit that might set up if dia seem wrong.
5. On many good 10 counts we would bid 3n anyway (with a dia fit).

Disadvantages
1. 2d might have been our last makeable spot.

Lots can go right and there is really not much downside especially since we will have strong clues on how to play the hand.

[benlessard]

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mean that my speculations about why you posted were correct?

Its with a little smile that I can tell you you are off mark here

The hand come from the BW forum its was played in the open trials RR.

http://bridgewinners...cut-the-losses/

I guess ill ask Kit wich board it was and vs wich opponent so that i can track what happen at the other tables.