Posted 2015-September-27, 19:24
Its a pretty good line to just win the spade in dummy and play a heart at once, covering east's card. Here, assuming that east plays the J of hearts, west wins and plays a spade. Then you can win the second spade cheaply in hand, and use the diamonds as transport to ruff two hearts. This works whenever the person with 3 hearts has 4 diamonds. Since you are missing 8 diamonds, that's 1/3 that the diamonds are 4-4, 1/2 that they are 5-3, and 1/4 of the rest (since you need no ruffs if diamonds 6-2 or worse), making it about 60% of 3-1 breaks.
As it happens, that fails.
The second line that I thought of is to win the spade cheaply in hand, then play AK of diamonds and exit with the heart Q. If lho continues a second spade, win in dummy, and if the spades are 3-1 play the diamond Q pitching a club and then a club. This will win on 3-1 spade breaks where either of the heart K or the club ace is with the singleton spade, and if all that fails, you can still take the ruffing club finesse. This needs diamonds no worse than 5-3 (since if its 6-2 they can probably arrange to ruff the diamond Q with trumps 2-2 and that is basically game over), so its about 7/8 * 0.8 = 65% of 3-1 breaks, but less a little bit because some 2-2 spade breaks can arrange to beat you either because the diamonds are 7-1 or 6-2.
As it happens that also fails.
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper
yunling wrote "West led ♥A and switched to a trump. Not a difficult problem, but I got it wrong at the table again "
Join the club
My guess: Cover with dummy's ♠9. If East covers win in hand. Exit with ♥Q (hoping that West has ♥K). Intending to ruff 2♥s in dummy, making 7 X ♠ and 3 X ♦.