[eagles123]

Tx
J98x
Kxxx
Jxx

uncontested auction starting on your left 1h 1s 2s 4n 5h 6s

[SteveMoe]

♠
A poll perhaps?

[kuhchung]

♦

[kenberg]

I lead a spade. I suppose that I have some interest in what their bidding means. Not so much the 4NT, but the major suit bidding. I am assuming that my rho has five spades and dummy might have only three. It's not that 1S over 1H promises five, although sometimes it does, but unless the raise of 1S to 2S unconditionally promises four I would expect responder, if his 1S was on four cards, to go a little slower.
So I figure five spades on my right and I am hoping to cut down on ruffs in the dummy.

[BillPatch]

Bird Anthias in their opus on leading against suit contracts divides leads against suit slams into two divisions, those where the opponents were able to investigate whether an AK off the top might be available an auctions that the opponents might lack inclination to determine this. Responder forced to slam after suit agreement at two level. So, unless responder is a neophyte, he could have cuebid if there were two quick diamond losers. The safest lead is a low trump(spade) stands out.

[mgoetze]

kenberg, on 2016-February-25, 11:59, said:

unless the raise of 1S to 2S unconditionally promises four

...which is quite common here in Yurope.

If 5♥ shows 2 KC no queen, then it could well be that they have all the keycards and a guess which way to finesse the trump queen, so I don't consider a trump lead safe at all. Leading from Kxxx or Jxx is not particularly safe either, but I'd still rather lead a minor here. I'll go club and hope that turns out to be a passive lead.

[billw55]

I think if we are going to beat this, we need to take the ♦K and one trick from partner.

Trump lead is definitely out in case partner holds the queen, as the keycard response may indicate. Declarers do guess wrong sometimes, but only if they get the chance.

Diamond lead is interesting. It works if partner has the queen, and might work if the ace is in dummy and declarer hops up. However, it will also give away a natural trick fairly often. If partner has the ace, prospects are not good, as declarer is probably short and partner holding a second trick is unlikely.

I think I will try the ♥9. On a good day this finds partner with the king behind dummy's ace. Or maybe it attacks a key entry, or works as a passive lead. Or maybe I just gave it away, who knows.

[StevenG]

Diamond for me. We're not told where this deal took place but if it's an English club game with random opps, I'd never trust them to have bid accurately.

[NickRW]

Nothing is really safe. A ♠ could find the Q for declarer (or there again declarer likely has that card). A ♦ could be necessary (or may blow our best chance at a trick). A ♥ might give nothing away (but leading dummy's side suit probably concedes the tempo while achieving nothing). And a ♣ could well be safe (or just might blow a trick as well). Personally I am going to gamble that declarer has the ♠Q anyway.

[ggwhiz]

NickRW, on 2016-February-26, 10:33, said:

Nothing is really safe.

♥9 is safest in that it only needs (most often) the Ten or better from pard to not blow a trick and is mildly attacking.

Club is the worst (Qxx with partner) and I can see a spade being totally passive but wouldn't do it and a diamond is a hail mary more suitable for imps than matchpoints but even then it's a stretch.

[mgoetze]

I don't quite understand ... if I were to lead a heart, why the 9?

[eagles123]

well i led a diamond and of course it was Qx in dummy and Axx in hand and they quickly wrapped up an otherwise unmakeable 13 tricks. From the responses on here and BW it seems like the majority lead so at least I have company

[mgoetze]

eagles123, on 2016-February-27, 03:15, said:

it seems like the majority lead

My BBF count:

4 spade
2 diamond
2 heart
1 club

[eagles123]

Quote

From the responses on here and BW

votes from there:

♣3: 4 votes (11%)
♦3: 18 votes (49%)
♦5: 11 votes (30%)
♠2: 2 votes (5%)
♠T: 2 votes (5%)

[ggwhiz]

mgoetze, on 2016-February-27, 01:48, said:

I don't quite understand ... if I were to lead a heart, why the 9?

The ten (3rd) in dummy and Qx with partner plus partner will often read our holding and declarer probably wont.

[kenberg]

eagles123, on 2016-February-27, 03:15, said:

well i led a diamond and of course it was Qx in dummy and Axx in hand and they quickly wrapped up an otherwise unmakeable 13 tricks. From the responses on here and BW it seems like the majority lead so at least I have company

After reading other comments I am wavering about my spade lead. If they have a nine card fit it is probably harmless but also probably useless for my announced purpose of cutting down on ruffs. If they have an eight card fit with the Jxxx in the dummy, AK9x in hand then declarer could but probably wouldn't pick up the suit if I keep my hands off a spade. Equally so with some other holdings.

The main problem I saw with a diamond, besides the fact that it might be wrong, is that even when it is right it may not work. Give partner Qxxx so this establishes a diamond and assume dummy has xx. Then, if dummy is 4=5=2=2, there is still a fine chance that declarer can draw trump and play of AKQ of clubs (he folds maybe AQJx for his strong bidding and the J in in dummy, and there goes the diamond trick. Even if declarer has to take a diamond pitch on clubs before drawing trump, probably he can. And often there will be a stiff diamond in dummy to go with the probable 4/5 major holding. The points are with declarer, opener does not have the values for a splinter over the 1S response.


So my thinking was: The diamond lead has risk (as happened) and even if it is successful it may not help. But I think I under-rated the danger of the spade lead. I think I still lead a spade, but less confidently.