[Kaitlyn S]

Stefan_O, on 2017-June-05, 19:51, said:

Hi Kaitlyn,

Were you assuming west lead from 5-card spade suit? Quite unlikely a-priori, that East should have exactly AJx.
Also, it makes it less likely that East (the shorter spade-hand) also has only doubleton hearts (Qx).

Or if West lead from S-Ace-something, we are already home, with no need to drop the H-Qx.

So, yes, I think the heart-finesse OR hearts 3-3 OR (finally) diam-King on-side is a considerably better line.

good point about the heart likely not being doubleton if West has spade length, but if West is 4-4 and chose spades (perhaps because of having the S-10 9) then the doubleton heart could drop

[Kaitlyn S]

duplicate post

[GrahamJson]

I've noticed that how you play hearts might be influenced by East's play to the first trick. If he drops a small card then, if it were from Qx, west would have 1098. In this case he might have lead hearts rather than spades. If east wee to drop the 8, 9 or 10 then the chances of him holding a doubleton queen would be greater.

[nekthen]

I'm guessing the key is to duck the opening lead

Now I've read the answer LOL

I guess either West is the danger hand or there is no danger hand so the immediate heart finesse is the first try, if this loses you can still hope for a 33 split

[Stefan_O]

sfi, on 2017-June-05, 20:46, said:

You don't get to try both 3-3 hearts and the diamond finesse because East is very likely to switch to a diamond.

That is actually the main "trick" of this hand (if my line is right )
East switch to diamonds, you win the Ace first, then try hearts 3-3 before playing diamonds towards your queen (if still needed) -- kind of a "delayed finesse"...

[Stefan_O]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-June-05, 23:47, said:

good point about the heart likely not being doubleton if West has spade length, but if West is 4-4 and chose spades (perhaps because of having the S-10 9) then the doubleton heart could drop

Yes, got it.
But I think, when the Ten comes out, the a-priori odds for 4 spades with west also go down considerably.
Since with T9xx you usually lead a low card (not the Ten), so it's only from T98x or better you lead the Ten.
While with 3 you also lead high from T9x.

Or, as mentioned, if the lead is from something like AJTx or AT9x, we dont need the third heart trick.

By the way, the book didn't say what lead-conventions?
"top-of-nothing" perhaps?

And which book was it from?

[sfi]

Stefan_O, on 2017-June-06, 03:52, said:

That is actually the main "trick" of this hand (if my line is right )
East switch to diamonds, you win the Ace first, then try hearts 3-3 before playing diamonds towards your queen (if still needed) -- kind of a "delayed finesse"...

Nice (and kudos to Kaitlyn who also pointed this out) - I missed that.

[Kaitlyn S]

sfi, on 2017-June-06, 08:18, said:

Nice (and kudos to Kaitlyn who also pointed this out) - I missed that.

I think Winston came up with that line on his own early in the thread. I had also missed it.

[miamijd]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-June-05, 18:43, said:

I read submissions for a particular award given to bridge authors so it could be anything.

You all win. I made a bad assumption. I presumed that West led his own suit, so that there is no danger hand (I fly SK the the next time spades are led and either East started with AJx, or West had the ace, or they are 4-4.) Given that, I decided to maximize the chances for three heart tricks - cash CK, CA so I know I only need one extra trick, then HA, HK, H to HJ, picking up three heart tricks if hearts are 3-3, West has the HQ, East has a short HQ.

Much to my dismay, West had S-1098 and H-Qxx and I found a way to go down in a contract that almost all of the readers of his book will make.

I thought long and hard before making the losing choice - I realized that I was probably wrong if West wasn't leading his own suit. I considered that E-W have the H-109 so West could have just as easily lead a short heart suit. I finally decided that West rated to have a better lead than the short spade suit when North had shown at least one four-card major.

Perhaps I should get it right for the wrong reason; would an author expect a reader of a not that hard bridge problem book to be able to figure out that spades probably aren't that dangerous and make the best play for three heart tricks? Still I'd probably go down at the table.

Just curious - how badly do y'all think I played this hand? Is a short suit lead likely enough that I should give up my best play for three heart tricks to cater to it?

Seems that West took a page from the GIB-bots with his NT leads! I don't think your line was that bad. I considered it, but eventually thought winston's line was better because West could have something like T9x in spades.

Cheers,
Mike

[kontoleon]

Ok lets give a try from fun.
If i uderstand correctly west oppening 10S.
I Thing North should wait and if play the Ace we have 2 stops on♠ if not we cash the Q♠.

The real threat from fail is the long ♠. Seem to my eyes that is better aford to lose one trick on East if we cash the Q.
So Maybe i try 2 rounds of ♣ to see if the club is 4-1 or 3-2 If is 4-1 with no favourite side the j♣ later i just try the H from 2 hopes.The hope of 3-3 or if at least the finess H works. Lastly if and this trick fail the last hope is the ♦ finess.

I mean if east win the trick, you have hopes to win the K♠ if west win the critical trick we maybe have broblems if east had the A ♠ with long suit.

But because is problems, i am sure that i am wrong

[alandel46]

With 15 points East can X and then W can transform to 5H.
Anyway i don't accept 4S without X

[Winstonm]

miamijd, on 2017-June-06, 13:48, said:

Seems that West took a page from the GIB-bots with his NT leads! I don't think your line was that bad. I considered it, but eventually thought winston's line was better because West could have something like T9x in spades.

Cheers,
Mike

I can see an argument for winning the spade Q and then playing as Kaitlyn suggests, top two hearts then low toward the J. The problem with that line is the determination of whether or not there is a dangerous hand. It could be that West has led from A1098x.

The heart of the problem is the best way to combine the chances for 1 additional trick (providing clubs break) while preventing the dangerous hand (if there is one) from getting in. Once the opening lead is won by the Q, West automatically becomes the potentially dangerous hand due to the lie of dummy's holding, not east-west holdings.

In my thinking, I saw four potentials for an extra trick: heart finesse, diamond K onside, and 3-3 hearts, or spade ace onside.
It then becomes an exercise in how best to combine those chances.

[Kaitlyn S]

Thank you all for your answers. In retrospect I think Winston's line is best, since I'm only picking up the short HQ in East, when means that West had four hearts and still led a spade. I believe the chances that West led a short spade and has the HQ probably is more than that, which makes Winston's line better.

Still, that's quite a problem 1!

Stefan_O, on 2017-June-06, 04:09, said:

And which book was it from?

I would normally have no problem saying except that if this book doesn't win the award, its author and publisher might be unhappy with people knowing that it was entered. I think you can safely assume it's a new book on declarer play, but I think there are several of those.

[gszes]

the very first post (cyberyeti) seemed like the best LOP (I gave a +). Just for grins, I read all of the rest of the 2 page posts and somehow cyber got no credit.

[Kaitlyn S]

gszes, on 2017-June-09, 13:17, said:

the very first post (cyberyeti) seemed like the best LOP (I gave a +). Just for grins, I read all of the rest of the 2 page posts and somehow cyber got no credit.

Yep! My fault - I gave Winston credit when Cyber posted the line first.