[lamford]

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Welsh Senior Trials. IMPs converted to VPs.

I don't have the auction (I did not play this time) but you are in 6NT by North, after South opened and rebid diamonds. East leads a passive diamond, and they are 2-2. If you come down to a three-card ending, with ♣ AJ ♥ K in North, opposite ♣T ♥J2 how would you play if, on the last diamond, East pitches
a) the queen of hearts?
b) a small club?

[Cyberyeti]

If E pitches ♥Q, if this is a true card, he had AQ/Kx but whatever he had exiting a heart can't be wrong, and there is only a decision to make if W wins the heart and E follows to it.

If he pitches a small club anything could be right.

[mikeh]

Another case of incomplete information. Most defenders, even those competing in national team trials (beyond, say, the knockout stages of the US team trials) don't defend perfectly nor in even tempo. At the table we'd know not merely the sequence of pitches on the pointed suits but also the tempo and we'd likely know something about the skill level of the opps. This makes a difference.

A great defender would know, by trick 10, what was going on and could pitch the heart Queen from Qx Kx. Most defenders could not. Btw, the unblock in clubs, necessary tho it was, pretty much gives away the club situation to the defenders. They are both playing double-dummy at this stage. However, different defenders will take different amounts of time to figure this out, and their earlier pitches may be informative, in tempo if not in alleged systemic meaning (good defenders will simply play up the line on this type of hand since count and true attitude can help only declarer. Players who think they are smart, or who have a low opinion of declarer, will tend to lie in attitude, and only weak defenders would tell the truth).

[neilkaz]

Very nice post, Mike!

[nige1]

Rubbish deleted

[GrahamJson]

Assuming east isn’t mad it must be right to play a heart if the queen has been discarded. You make if east has the ace or if west has the king of clubs. It only loses if west has the ace and east the club king, in which case it never makes.

The only time it is right to run the club is if east has discarded down to Kxx. But he surely wouldn’t do that as he should know that keeping a heart would guarantee the contract is going off.

If east discards a low club it’s best to take the club finesse. As the queen of hearts hasn’t been discarded it is less likely that east is down to - A - Kx.

[Cyberyeti]

GrahamJson, on 2019-February-06, 12:03, said:

Assuming east isn’t mad it must be right to play a heart if the queen has been discarded. You make if east has the ace or if west has the king of clubs. It only loses if west has the ace and east the club king, in which case it never makes.

The only time it is right to run the club is if east has discarded down to Kxx. But he surely wouldn’t do that as he should know that keeping a heart would guarantee the contract is going off.

If east discards a low club it’s best to take the club finesse. As the queen of hearts hasn’t been discarded it is less likely that east is down to - A - Kx.

Depends what you keep from ♥Ax/♣xx from the W hand on the previous trick.

If you throw a club the winning line for declarer is to cash A♣ then play a heart and his J scores at the end. This is why you might throw Q♥ from the other hand from Qx/Kx to persuade declarer to play a heart next.

If you throw a heart, declarer has the option now of pitching a club and playing a heart.

[lamford]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-February-06, 13:44, said:

Depends what you keep from ♥Ax/♣xx from the W hand on the previous trick.

If you throw a club the winning line for declarer is to cash A♣ then play a heart and his J scores at the end. This is why you might throw Q♥ from the other hand from Qx/Kx to persuade declarer to play a heart next.

If you throw a heart, declarer has the option now of pitching a club and playing a heart.

I think mikeh is right. You need to be there, and, at the table, I am told declarer took the club finesse at trick two. I suppose some of the time East will not play a heart back without the ace. If East pitches the queen of hearts you obviously play a heart, and if he pitches a club, then I think you do take the club finesse.