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East leads the ace of diamonds on which West plays the jack, and switches to a small club. You play the ace. Now how would you play the trumps?
My Welsh teammmate Richard Plackett had a tough decision here.
Again Champions Cup, Round 8, table 1 ...
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By Hook or By Look A trump guess
#1
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Posted 2022-February-09, 13:32
East leads the ace of diamonds on which West plays the jack, and switches to a small club. You play the ace. Now how would you play the trumps?
My Welsh teammmate Richard Plackett had a tough decision here.
Again Champions Cup, Round 8, table 1 ...
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
#2
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Posted 2022-February-09, 14:31
Could we have a look at opps' CC?
#3
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Posted 2022-February-09, 15:14
nullve, on 2022-February-09, 14:31, said:
Could we have a look at opps' CC?
I can guess. But there are no cards shown on Vugraph. One can assume strong no-trump better minor, reverse carding I think.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
#4
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Posted 2022-February-09, 20:13
nullve, on 2022-February-09, 14:31, said:
Could we have a look at opps' CC?
Why does it matter? East has the AK of diamonds
I’d lead a low spade and play the AK unless east show out.
This is slightly percentage in the suit plus if spades are 3-1, I can hope the long spade has 3+ hearts.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
#5
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Posted 2022-February-10, 02:53
mikeh, on 2022-February-09, 20:13, said:
Why does it matter? East has the AK of diamonds
I’d lead a low spade and play the AK unless east show out.
This is slightly percentage in the suit plus if spades are 3-1, I can hope the long spade has 3+ hearts.
I’d lead a low spade and play the AK unless east show out.
This is slightly percentage in the suit plus if spades are 3-1, I can hope the long spade has 3+ hearts.
But what if it were clear from their CC that
* they lead A from AKx(...)
* the low club was attitude
* East would have opened with ♠Q+♦AK+♣Q/K ("we open all 11s")
?
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Posted 2022-February-11, 18:00
nullve, on 2022-February-10, 02:53, said:
But what if it were clear from their CC that
* they lead A from AKx(...)
* the low club was attitude
* East would have opened with ♠Q+♦AK+♣Q/K ("we open all 11s")
?
* they lead A from AKx(...)
* the low club was attitude
* East would have opened with ♠Q+♦AK+♣Q/K ("we open all 11s")
?
The club switch presumably suggested an honour. My view of this is that the queen of spades is about 75% to be onside. If East has the king of clubs, then West has to have the queen of spades. If East has the queen of clubs, then West might have opened the 11-count. Most people seem to these days. Even if East has neither club honour, it is 50% that West has the queen of spades.
I think it is clear to cross to the top heart and hook the spade. that is around 80% as it picks up stiff queen with East as well. Cashing the spades drops the queen about 50% of the time, and finds the person with the queen of spades having three or more hearts around 40% of the remainder. About 70% overall. I don't think it is that close.
But I have a simulation running with East opening all 12 counts and passing all 11 counts. On that the finesse is leading about 79-71 as I speak.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
#7
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Posted 2022-February-12, 04:02
lamford, on 2022-February-11, 18:00, said:
The club switch presumably suggested an honour. My view of this is that the queen of spades is about 75% to be onside. If East has the king of clubs, then West has to have the queen of spades. If East has the queen of clubs, then West might have opened the 11-count. Most people seem to these days. Even if East has neither club honour, it is 50% that West has the queen of spades.
I think it is clear to cross to the top heart and hook the spade. that is around 80% as it picks up stiff queen with East as well. Cashing the spades drops the queen about 50% of the time, and finds the person with the queen of spades having three or more hearts around 40% of the remainder. About 70% overall. I don't think it is that close.
But I have a simulation running with East opening all 12 counts and passing all 11 counts. On that the finesse is leading about 79-71 as I speak.
I think it is clear to cross to the top heart and hook the spade. that is around 80% as it picks up stiff queen with East as well. Cashing the spades drops the queen about 50% of the time, and finds the person with the queen of spades having three or more hearts around 40% of the remainder. About 70% overall. I don't think it is that close.
But I have a simulation running with East opening all 12 counts and passing all 11 counts. On that the finesse is leading about 79-71 as I speak.
If I was looking at ♠Qx, I would CERTAINLY switch to a very small club from a set of small ones here, I want to lead a club, and I know that my Q figures to make if I represent a club honour.
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