[Cyberyeti]

Is it deliberate that no thread has been created for this ?

I'm posting this because I have a very conflicted position on what we should do next.

Every instinct of mine says that we should stand up to Putin in any way possible short of putting troops on the ground in Ukraine. If that involves no fly zones and hitting Russian troops from the air so be it, but it's been well explained why this is problematic, and why western leaders are not doing this.

The conflicting factor for me is what's happening to ordinary poor Russians, and many will die there.

I have a friend (34F, no friend of Putin) living on the outskirts of Moscow. After bills, she lived on about $2 a day. This was just about enough, but now energy prices are going through the roof, and staples like buckwheat have gone up by a third pretty much overnight. Next winter if not before she will starve, particularly if Russia is cut off from money transfers.

I'm now looking at if there's any legitimate way of getting her out of Russia, and struggling with how/where to start with the UK immigration process.

[hrothgar]

Let's be VERY clear about what a no fly zone means

1. It means shooting down Russian planes that are operating over Ukraine
2. It also requires suppressing Russian air defense assets (because you don't want the Russians shooting down NATO jets)

Enforcing a no fly zone means a hot war between NATO and Russia

[hrothgar]

Cyberyeti, on 2022-March-02, 09:09, said:

struggling with how/where to start with the UK immigration process.

Amazing how positions about immigration are changing.

[Cyberyeti]

hrothgar, on 2022-March-02, 09:46, said:

Let's be VERY clear about what a no fly zone means

1. It means shooting down Russian planes that are operating over Ukraine
2. It also requires suppressing Russian air defense assets (because you don't want the Russians shooting down NATO jets)

Enforcing a no fly zone means a hot war between NATO and Russia

And 2 is the real problem, because some of those Russian air defence assets are INSIDE Russia.

[Cyberyeti]

hrothgar, on 2022-March-02, 09:47, said:

Amazing how positions about immigration are changing.

She may have a valid asylum claim, she runs a suicide prevention site and telling a suicidal teen "it's OK to be gay" breaks Russia's anti-gay laws and some people apparently have been prosecuted for that. I just don't have the knowledge.

[hrothgar]

FWIW, I have no idea what the short / medium term implications are going to be here with respect to Ukraine and its territorial integrity. I wish them the best of luck, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians try to annex the two (supposed) break away territories.

What I am really hoping to see come out of this are concerted efforts to isolate Europe from the Russian energy markets. Seeing the German's talking about starting up the nuclear programs once again is a great first step.

Can't make up my mind what I would think about NATO expansion into Sweden and Finland.

[Cyberyeti]

hrothgar, on 2022-March-02, 10:19, said:

FWIW, I have no idea what the short / medium term implications are going to be here with respect to Ukraine and its territorial integrity. I wish them the best of luck, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians try to annex the two (supposed) break away territories.

What I am really hoping to see come out of this are concerted efforts to isolate Europe from the Russian energy markets. Seeing the German's talking about starting up the nuclear programs once again is a great first step.

Can't make up my mind what I would think about NATO expansion into Sweden and Finland.

My worry in the short term is that Russia feels it's all taking too long and starts flattening Kyiv or using illegal munitions, at which point the west may get dragged into something horrible.

[hrothgar]

Cyberyeti, on 2022-March-02, 10:30, said:

My worry in the short term is that Russia feels it's all taking too long and starts flattening Kyiv or using illegal munitions, at which point the west may get dragged into something horrible.

The Russians are already using cluster bombs on civilian targets.

I doubt that this will cause the West to take direct action.
(It won't bring anyone back to life)

This is a marathon, not a sprint.

[Cyberyeti]

hrothgar, on 2022-March-02, 10:36, said:

The Russians are already using cluster bombs on civilian targets.

I doubt that this will cause the West to take direct action.
(It won't bring anyone back to life)

This is a marathon, not a sprint.

I was talking about fuel-air in built up areas.

[Winstonm]

It seems Putin is not nearly as good as some other autocrats in selling BS to his troops:

Quote

WASHINGTON — Plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages, some Russian troops in Ukraine have surrendered en masse or sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting, a senior Pentagon official said Tuesday.

Some entire Russian units have laid down their arms without a fight after confronting a surprisingly stiff Ukrainian defense, the official said. A significant number of the Russian troops are young conscripts who are poorly trained and ill-prepared for the all-out assault. And in some cases, Russian troops have deliberately punched holes in their vehicles' gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said.

[Gilithin]

hrothgar, on 2022-March-02, 09:46, said:

Let's be VERY clear about what a no fly zone means

1. It means shooting down Russian planes that are operating over Ukraine
2. It also requires suppressing Russian air defense assets (because you don't want the Russians shooting down NATO jets)

Enforcing a no fly zone means a hot war between NATO and Russia

Would your position about NATO involvement be different if Ukraine had the same energy reserves as Russia? Should oil/gas really be the main consideration when it comes to defending democracy?

Cyberyeti, on 2022-March-02, 09:59, said:

And 2 is the real problem, because some of those Russian air defence assets are INSIDE Russia.

2 is not the problem as the advocates of a NFZ tend to be for enforcing it only over the Western portion of the country precisely for this reason. The main issue is as hrothgar lays out, that it means a direct hot air war between NATO and Russia.

[Cyberyeti]

Gilithin, on 2022-March-02, 12:36, said:

Would your position about NATO involvement be different if Ukraine had the same energy reserves as Russia? Should oil/gas really be the main consideration when it comes to defending democracy?

While Ukraine doesn't have that, it does have some VERY serious mineral assets

Quote

2 is not the problem as the advocates of a NFZ tend to be for enforcing it only over the Western portion of the country precisely for this reason. The main issue is as hrothgar lays out, that it means a direct hot air war between NATO and Russia.

I thought the radar, which you normally take out for a no fly zone was in Russia for the whole country.

[kenberg]

Thank you Cyberyeti for starting this thread. I hope it gets me, and others, somewhere toward a better understanding.
These last few days have brought the realization that basically, in this area, I know nothing.

[pilowsky]

John J Mearsheimer provides an excellent explanation of about the role of western political thinking and the conflict in the Ukraine.
The lecture from 2015 is extraordinarily prescient.
He points out that the insistence by the USA at a meeting in Bucharest in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia should become NATO members is the root cause of this conflict.

[LBengtsson]

In chess the strongest defense is counter attack. The Ukrainians have done it militarily: the West have done this with sanctions. The ordinary Russians will eventually find out that it is Putin that has caused all this and that civil unrest will occur. If many take to the streets, like the Russian revolutions, then the regime will fall. That is all we can hope for. Countless thousands will die. Its a complete stalemate at the moment. Putin has the advantage. He will play the rest of the 'game' like this until his own forces turn their back on him. Only then will some peace be restored.

[Douglas43]

pilowsky, on 2022-March-02, 15:51, said:

John J Mearsheimer provides an excellent explanation of about the role of western political thinking and the conflict in the Ukraine.
The lecture from 2015 is extraordinarily prescient.
He points out that the insistence by the USA at a meeting in Bucharest in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia should become NATO members is the root cause of this conflict.

So nothing to do with Putin copying Hitler's playbook for nibbling at territory? He knows NATO in Europe is a defensive alliance and there's no way a 30-country alliance would launch an attack on Russia (as opposed to defend its members against attack).

But if you were a small country bordering Russia, would you (a) think let's join Nato now before we're attacked, or (b) I'll sit here and hope for the best, that Mr Putin seems like a decent chap.

[hrothgar]

FWIW, I am current working 18 hour days trying to deal with the fall out from the invasion.

Wish that I could comment on the various stuff that is going on.

[Winstonm]

pilowsky, on 2022-March-02, 15:51, said:

John J Mearsheimer provides an excellent explanation of about the role of western political thinking and the conflict in the Ukraine.
The lecture from 2015 is extraordinarily prescient.
He points out that the insistence by the USA at a meeting in Bucharest in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia should become NATO members is the root cause of this conflict.

I don’t think this goes far enough. Putin in not threatened by NATO on his doorstep but by democracy surrounding him. Without the ability to gaslight his own people, the dictator is only a thug in constant fear of being overthrown.

[Winstonm]

https://www.reuters....ren-2022-03-04/

Quote

"Dear Ukrainian friends, my name is Gioia Maria. And I'm Italian. I'm very sorry for this horrible war. I'm very close to you with my heart. I'd very like to do more, but I'm very small and far away. Every night I pray for you and I ask God to help you. With love. Gioia Maria."

[cherdano]

Gilithin, on 2022-March-02, 12:36, said:

Would your position about NATO involvement be different if Ukraine had the same energy reserves as Russia? Should oil/gas really be the main consideration when it comes to defending democracy?

No, easy decision. You don't enforce a no-fly-zone if it means opening a logical path to escalation to a nuclear WW 3.