mycroft, on 2022-October-07, 13:19, said:
Against a good 15-18 NT overcall, the chance of game is equally small. So we're still spending most of our effort into winning the partscore and disrupting their system, giving up game search to do so. I like 2NT in this auction as "GF, can't insist on anything yet" for the very rare times, especially when vul vs not, that game is worth investigating. That leaves all the other bids to "compete for partscore" and "disrupt their system".
But since you have the benefit of the knowledge that partner opened, and you know where 12 + 16 = 28 +/- 2 HCP are, you are much more likely to "know they're playing out of their hand" i.e. dummy's blank. And without entry to the board, "finesse the strong hand" is something declarer can't do (and you're not likely to do for them more than once). So here, "any decent 9" is probably best defending, especially without the 11 or so or extreme shape that would make game your way on. So you double with those hands.
Which means that all bids are not only "compete for partscore" but also "NF, because I don't have a decent 9". How weak you want to make them is up to agreement, but as always, the fewer the HCP, the more tricks you expect to take in long trumps. You are also allowed to pass, after all.
I see your point, transfers would be more effective with vision of game and/or opener's strength more closely limited. But still it irks me to play for the partscore with the stronger hand on the table and (above all) the blank hand rather than the bad guy on lead.
mycroft, on 2022-October-07, 13:19, said:
I am now reminded of the pair in Penticton who, when the director was called to their table early in the week, said that they didn't have to Announce their 12-14 HCP 1NT *overcall*. Which, of course, was true. The director told them, however, that they had to Alert them instead (still do with the new Alert Procedure). Oddly enough, by the end of the week, they weren't playing 12-14 1NT overcalls any more.
Our problems are more the occasional beginners who just don't have the natural strength range clear (no wish to bash bunnies, but if they stray into the competitive tourney there is no choice) and a few experienced pairs who will overcall 1NT without a stop in the minor (sometimes willing to explain when asked, never ready with the alert).