[riverwalk3]

In Board a Match, say you are in a normal contract and there is a risky play available. Ie suppose you are in 3NT with S xxx H Axx D xxx C AKQx opposite S AKxx H xx D AKJ C xxxx. West leads the King of Hearts.

Assuming clubs split 3-2, this gives 9 top tricks. Once you lose the lead, the opponents will run hearts. You can finesse diamonds, but that would risk going down. However, it's probably still the correct play at matchpoints (after running clubs and possible forcing some uncomfortable discards), given that the opponents might only cash 3 more hearts anyway after losing the finesse.

The question now becomes: what play should you make if you are currently ahead? Behind? For example, if you are behind, should not finesse, hoping the other team finesses and you get a swing?

[apollo1201]

Is it a bord a match where some of the points are allocated based on the IMPs difference and some based on each deal?

I’ve played an event (4-deal matches) where half of the pts were allocated by deal (you score 0, 1 or 2) and the remaining 8 based on the IMP difference (with an appropriate scale from 0 to 8).

With this allocation, I’d be reluctant to take the finesse

[riverwalk3]

apollo1201, on 2023-March-10, 13:23, said:

Is it a bord a match where some of the points are allocated based on the IMPs difference and some based on each deal?

I’ve played an event (4-deal matches) where half of the pts were allocated by deal (you score 0, 1 or 2) and the remaining 8 based on the IMP difference (with an appropriate scale from 0 to 8).

With this allocation, I’d be reluctant to take the finesse

The scoring is 1 if you get a strictly higher score than the other table (whether by 10 or 1000), 1/2 if you score the same, and 0 if you score strictly below. Hence the finesse would clearly be the normal play without considerations of being ahead/behind the other team.

[mikeh]

We duck the first heart. While this won’t work against good defenders, if west has KQ10x(x) he might fear south holding AJx.

If he continues, I probably win the second round, so as to have an exit.

I’d review the auction. If west has, say, KQJxx (and we should have a good inferential count), could he have overcalled at the 1-level? What is the vulnerability? That impacts whether he might have bid with a stray queen.

Then I play two clubs. I watch their carding. Assuming both follow….

Then I consider whether my team is weaker, stronger or about the same as my opps

Then I consider the state of the session and the event. Do we need wins?

For example, many years ago in a mixed BAM at a NABC, my team didn’t rate to do well. I held Axx dummy and KJ10x in hand. The percentage play is the ace then hook the Jack, picking up Qxxx onside

Advancing the Jack initially doesn’t pick up Qxxx on my left. I felt that we needed as many slightly anti-percentage ‘wins’ as possible so I ran the Jack, picking off Qxx. My LHO was annoyed and asked me why I played the suit backwards, to which my answer was that I hadn’t come all this way to get tie boards. Had I been on a stronger team, I would have taken the normal line.

So these sorts of factors go into the mix. But ultimately it comes down to ‘how do I feel?’


Btw, against most good defenders and many not so good defenders, we probably have a good inferential count in hearts even at trick 2 and almost always by trick three, if we did decide to duck twice.

If we are convinced hearts are 4-4, I’d win the second heart, cash two clubs (partly to know whether I have 4 tricks there and partly hoping to strip west of a club exit). Then exit a heart. Let them rectify the count for me. Who knows? I have no discard problems….a spade and diamond from dummy, a club or spade from hand. They can probably arrange who wins the last heart, but sometimes west gets stuck and usually it doesn’t matter. They’ve had no chance to signal as to diamonds or spades so west may go wrong if he wins the last heart (plus someone, presumably east most of the time may hold the diamond queen and four spades and be in trouble on the run of the clubs).

So you can see that this simple problem is far from straightforward😀

As for ‘the finesse would clearly be the normal play’, I think it depends on how we place the cards. As I’ve noted, we may have lines of play that are superior to the straight finesse. I doubt I’d know how ‘normal’ the finesse would be until quite well into the play.

[johnu]

Is there any bidding or is this a just declare hand? Do the opponents play any spot cards or do they just play x's.

[riverwalk3]

johnu, on 2023-March-10, 16:24, said:

Is there any bidding or is this a just declare hand? Do the opponents play any spot cards or do they just play x's.

Suppose South Dealer 1NT P 3NT A, and the Xs are as small as possible.

[dokoko]

Usually there are some practical aspects to consider. If you reduce a hand at the table to some theoretical question you will often miss something.

- Here if you have reason to assume hearts are 4-4, the finesse is safe as you will still win if it loses.
- If clubs don't break you will need the finesse anyway (as long as you don't play for spades and hearts breaking evenly).
- If you assume hearts are 5-3, a finesse into the danger hand is risky but usually odds on, while a finesse the other way is safe.
- You may try to drop ♦Q. While this isn't very likely to materialize, it's still a possibility.
- Instead of a finesse into the danger hand, you might try to duck a spade into the safe hand. For this you should be pretty sure that hearts are 5-3.

So usually there are more than two options ("finesse" or "don't") and the right play depends on what you think is appropriate on the actual deal.

In general, if the contract at the other table is likely to be the same - as well as the lead, from the two most promising lines you should choose the one that beats the other more often; if it's a tie choose the safer one.

If you are in an unusual situation, try to figure out what might be happening at the other table. If you are in an inferior contract, play for some layout where you can beat the normal contract.