[pescetom]

MP

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There seem to be 50 HCP in this auction, but when the dust settles and dummy is down you can count 17 on the line.
You could also expect 17 total trumps, but something suggested that game was better than double or pass all the same.
Your plan now after ♥3K lead taken inevitably in dummy?

[mikeh]

Spoiler

If west has the spade queen, which I rate as better than fifty %….I expect him to hold Qxx for his 4H bid, expecting to find shortness in dummy….I have an easy 10 tricks on a crossruff. So that’s what I’ll do.

[LBengtsson]

A X-ruff looks the obvious line, but...+1 pescetom. Though I think it is more difficult than that. The ♥ suit is likely to be 6-2 on the lead. There are other lines available imo. I think I would still go on the X-ruff though.

[pescetom]

I hoped to hear more people here... maybe this will break the ice.

mikeh, on 2023-July-14, 19:08, said:

If west has the spade queen, which I rate as better than fifty %….I expect him to hold Qxx for his 4H bid, expecting to find shortness in dummy….I have an easy 10 tricks on a crossruff. So that’s what I’ll do.

Hmmm. That's close to what I thought too. I rated West more than 50% to hold the ♠Q and also ♣A. I still wasn't thrilled at the prospects of crossruff, it looks like I'm missing a heart to make it on the ruffs alone and it gets tricky if I give up control in clubs. I thought about running two rounds of cross ruffs and then laying down ♠A and K before tackling the clubs... but that looked uncertain too. In the end I decided to cross ruff until I saw the hearts split and then replan.

It was the defence who replanned for me, as East ruffed my last heart with the Q and returned another trump I was a bit shocked, but West followed suit and somehow I survived. I had no choice but to take with K and run ♣J. As I recall, that ran QKA to West who returned a club which I took in hand, then I led a club ruffed by East, who had to lead diamonds into two cross ruffs.

I was smug about this 85% at the time, but looking harder I was just lucky. If East had pitched a club rather than ruffed then I was never going to make a tenth trick. Even if West held ♠Qxx as in mikeh's plan, I think we have a similar problem if West pitches clubs on our fourth diamond. On the actual layout I think my AK line would have worked, but not if Qxx was in West. Not sure if there is any line that can always make, thoughts are welcome.

[pescetom]

Here is the actual layout.

MP

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[mikeh]

Lol. It would have helped had we been given the actual lead😀 but I know how easy it is to make a mistake in posting

[pescetom]

mikeh, on 2023-July-16, 13:20, said:

Lol. It would have helped had we been given the actual lead�� but I know how easy it is to make a mistake in posting

Yes it was 3♥ as corrected, sorry.
How would that have changed things (apart from a slight change in odds of holding trumps Q) and would it change your plan?

[gszes]

I am curious why NOONE has commented on east 2d bid rather than showing heart support. 2d was NOT forcing by the passed hand east and actually limits the amount of heart held to 2 or less. I would have bid 2h but the optimists have an easy 2s bid to show a limit raise.