[Cyberyeti]

South deals and passes, all vulnerable IMPs

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This hand is apparently so difficult that 2 of the 8 tables didn't reach game on their combined 30 count, I have no idea why

Assume a spade lead from either side against any contract

[jillybean]

I would open 1H sitting West but most of partners aren't so undisciplined so I will pass.

delete

[Zelandakh]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-September-02, 09:59, said:

South deals and passes, all vulnerable IMPs

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This hand is apparently so difficult that 2 of the 8 tables didn't reach game on their combined 30 count, I have no idea why

Assume a spade lead from either side against any contract

Assuming this was a club game, I would assume that there were some disagreements about strong versus weak jump shifts. That seems like the easiest way to miss game here. Here's an auction:-

1♥ = 5+ hearts 10-17 unbal
... - 1♠ = INV+ relay
1NT = min 0-3 spades
... - 2♣ = GF relay
2♦ = 4+ clubs
... - 2♥ = relay
2♠ = 5+ clubs
... - 2NT = relay
3♦ = 2=5=1=5
... - 4NT = nat


I suspect that would not be seen at your club. They play Benji? Perhaps P - 2♣; 2♦ - 3♦; 3♥ - 3♠ - 3NT would be appropriate there. I am pretty sure most of the pairs don't look for slam unless it is completely obvious, so in this context stopping in 3NT seems right. How did you bid it?

[Cyberyeti]

I suspect P-1♦-1♥-3♦-P. We had an otherwise enormous card, this was the only hand we lost more than 5 imps on the crossimp (5.7 or so) and that only because 2 people with our opps cards missed game, and another went off in 6N, we defended 5♥.

6♥, 6♣ and 6N can all be made I think, but demand you playing for some odd things

[mikeh]

Good problem. I think it difficult to construct an auction without knowing a lot about partnership style and agreement.

For example, in my main partnership

1H 2D 2H 3D 3S 4N pass

1H….minimum but clear in our style. 3 controls, all the hcp in the long suits, good club spots and no rebid issues most of the time. Btw, we don’t use the Rule of x’.

2D natural, 5+, gf

2H shows precisely 5 hearts.

3D. 6+ diamonds, unable to bid 2N because of the clubs

3S. Shows doubt about spades….with spades stopped but not clubs, we bid 3N. One can’t have it both ways and this is our agreement. Responder has denied 4 spades, so 3S is a notrump try. With 5=6 in the pointers, we’ll pull 3N to 5S.

4N. Quantitative natural slam try.

Pass. Kind of regretting the whole thing.

Spade lead…

I’d be in the tank for a long time, which is easier at imps than at mps, where time pressure is more common.

It looks to me that we should play on diamonds but is it better to duck a spade first? And should we tackle diamonds from the top, or duck one early?

I don’t think we need duck a spade. It’s unlikely to cost and on a good day we can take a huge number of tricks…even at imps overtricks matter a bit.

So win the spade.

Ducking a diamond costs an imp if the suit is 3-3…a priori 35.5%. But playing from the top means making 3 discards….can that be a problem? Not if the suit breaks 3-3 or 4-2. We have 5 diamonds, two in each black suit and the heart Ace. Plus we can change horses if someone shows out on the second diamond, which will happen about 16% of the time,

But what to pitch on that second diamond? I’d pitch a heart intending to play on clubs for 4 tricks should diamonds be foul.

In a vacuum, the percentage play in clubs is to hook twice, but if south shows in with 5 diamonds, the odds change and I’d switch to playingbgeart Ace and a heart, hoping for Kx or Kxx in south.

If south shows out on the second diamond, then the double club hook gets even better.

Anyway, since diamonds get me to 10 tricks on top 84% of the time, that’s my line.

Had I stopped in 3N, playing on hearts can’t lose the contract, but it may prevent you from taking overtricks since you need diamonds 3-3…they’ll set the spades and, even if they don’t, you won’t have any dummy entries after conceding a diamond.

[mikeh]

Adding: if I played a style in which west passes, I’d open either 2N or 2C…the latter being an upgrade but this hand is worth a lot more than most 4432/4333 20-21 counts. The odds are over 50% that I have 9 top tricks in my hand, unless they lead clubs of course. If I opened 2C, I’d show a 22-23 balanced hand. So 2C 2D 2N 3D 3H 4C 4N

It’s asking a lot of west to have him pass 4N. In real life I’m not at all sure that I could bring myself to do that. Strange….it’s easy to stop in 4N if west opens but difficult if he passes.

[mw64ahw]

If I opened 1♥ with certain pick-up partners I can see this going

1♥ - 2♦ GF
3♣ - 4N Blackwood (they'd expect 12hcp)
5♦ - 5N
6♦ - 6N
With a regular partner I end in 4N opening 1♥.

If East upgraded (running ♦s?) and opens then
2♦ Multi - 2♥
3♣ 6♦ no side suit - 3♥ 5+
3♠ - 4♣ Gerber variation
4♦ 3/0 - 4♥
5♣ - 6N

I'd win the ♠ then play A♥ followed by 5♥ as a starter.

[awm]

I have to say that I think all these auctions with West opening 1♥ and then stopping in 3NT or 4NT are a bit optimistic. The East hand is a prime 20-count with a strong six-card suit, it seems very conservative to bid only 4NT. Will partner know to bid a grand with xx KQxxx Jx AKxx and to accept the invite to six with xx KQJxx x KQxxx?

Playing relays I might get out in 4NT, but in a natural auction with West opening I'd expect to land in slam.

[mikeh]

I think I was guilty of what I sometimes accuse others of doing: knowing both hands, I allowed that knowledge to affect my imagined auction. I agree with awm that it’s unrealistic to expect responder to avoid slam if west opens.

[Cyberyeti]

 mikeh, on 2024-September-03, 07:13, said:

I think I was guilty of what I sometimes accuse others of doing: knowing both hands, I allowed that knowledge to affect my imagined auction. I agree with awm that it’s unrealistic to expect responder to avoid slam if west opens.

Well you bid it, now make it, how do you play 6♣/♥/N on a spade lead ?

[mikeh]

If diamonds are running, it’s cold…just concede a heart. So we assume diamonds are not 3=3.

5 diamond tricks are very likely but if we concede a diamond we can’t afford a heart loser. We’re ok if the QJ of clubs are onside…we can double hook….how likely that is depends on who has the diamond length but the starting point is 25%…which is not great.

I think Ace and a heart might create a good position. If we get 4 heart tricks we may have a squeeze. Anyone with 4=4 in the minors is going to be in trouble.

I can hope for Kx onside or 3=3 hearts…and south, with Kxxx may have problems as well. If he ducks, then I have to guess well. No good opponents is telling us the heart count….they already know it and it only helps me. If a good player told me they were 4-2, I might play for 3-3, but I expect no help.

Low to the Queen, holding at trick 3. Now, unless I’m feeling lucky in hearts, I test diamonds, hoping that if they are 4-2, the long diamond is out of hearts. Say I concede a diamond to north. Back comes a spade. Win and run the diamonds. South’s in trouble if he is 4-4 in the rounded suit…say 3=4=2=4.

If north wins the heart queen and returns a spade, I win, cross in clubs, test the hearts and hope for a 3-3 break in one of the red suits and, if in hearts, a squeeze. If in diamonds, I claim.

I haven’t crunched the numbers but 3-3 hearts are more likely than both clubs onside, plus the edge of Kx onside. But I don’t know the probability of the squeeze that I still need, while double hooking clubs makes without any squeeze, if it works.

Good play problem.

[Zelandakh]

 awm, on 2024-September-03, 02:18, said:

I have to say that I think all these auctions with West opening 1♥ and then stopping in 3NT or 4NT are a bit optimistic. The East hand is a prime 20-count with a strong six-card suit, it seems very conservative to bid only 4NT. Will partner know to bid a grand with xx KQxxx Jx AKxx and to accept the invite to six with xx KQJxx x KQxxx?

10-13 opposite 20 and a complete misfit sounds like an invite to me. Partner cannot really have the first hand after they show 2515. The way my system works, if East relays again for controls, any subsequent 4NT becomes a queen ask rather than an invite, so this is easily the best way of reaching slam when it is right and stopping in 4NT when it is marginal or just bad. In any case, it is very difficult to find a realistic way of stopping short of game after West opens outside of a misunderstanding.

[Cyberyeti]

I left it hanging as to how the play goes, if you get desperate in 6any, clubs are QJx onside, but 6♥ can be made without if you play for the right miracle.

Assume clubs 3-3, hearts 3-3 but not ♣QJx onside.

Try the effect of ♣AK and a ruff, A♥ and now you have to guess who has the ♥K unless both hands are 4333. If you guess the ♥K is with the 5 card spade suit, you play ♦AK pitching a spade and ruff a spade back to hand to play ♥Q, if you think it's with the 4 card diamond holding, you simply play the other top spade and ruff a spade back to hand. You have to guess right to avoid a trump promotion if the ♥109 are split.

Ace and another heart, K wins and a spade comes back, you could be in trouble, but as it happens can make on the squeeze. as N is 5323, S 3343 with both clubs.