[kereru67]

---

E dealer, nobody vulnerable. This was a typical auction, 3NT usually means 25-26. Nobody bid the slam, yet the hands offer excellent play for 6NT, with a possible 12th trick in ♦ or ♠. I'd probably start by testing if South has the ♦K then try to get info on the ♠ distribution, maybe there's a more sophisticated squeeze or throw-in play which offers better probabilities. Thoughts on that appreciated but I want to focus on the bidding really.

I think slam *should* be bid on these cards, but I'm not sure *how* to bid it. If both players bid their cards literally according to SAYC or most other systems, they'll end up underbidding it. 4NT (whatever form of Blackwood) is no use, but there's no easy way to enquire about kings without committing to 6NT.

[DavidKok]

There's at least four points here that I think should be addressed individually. I'll give it a shot:

• Would you like to be in slam, seeing both hands? I think 'yes', but I'd like to be in 6♣ (or perhaps 7♣). The nice fit means we can comfortably aim to ruff a heart, and then we're just fishing for a 13th trick. Even if 6NT scores better, the increased risk of failing to make the contract is decisive. However, I am being careful not to ask 'Should you be in slam?'. In general it is difficult to bid to the single dummy optimal contract, and you can well get to a poor contract even with neither player misbidding.
  
• How much is the East hand worth? A quick count shows 26 HCP per Milton Work, but the hand is significantly stronger than that. The hand is full of aces and kings (in fact, contains all the aces). It has an amazing five card suit. Even that ♠T is an unusually good asset in a hand where so many slots are already taken up by honours. I'd rate the hand to be worth closer to 28, and East has seriously underbid their hand by showing 25-26. What's more, this far in the tail of the HCP distribution, the lower end of the range is much more likely than the upper range. Even in the two-point range of 25-26 the distribution is approximately 70%-30% in favour of 25 HCP (based on 4,353,876 randomly generated hands, of which 1,000 were of the requisite shape and strength). So that's the strength partner will assume on close decisions. We're simply too strong for that.
  
• You mentioned that 4NT would be Blackwood (by which hand, actually?). I think instead it should be quantitative, on this auction and many others. Finding your combined strength and possibility of a fit takes priority over finding the number of aces. Many people abuse 4NT-as-a-gadget too often, and from the sound of it that may have hurt you on this deal.
  
• 2♣ auctions are a mess, even with great agreements. Not that there's a better alternative, mind you. But you have to accept that when you open 2♣, you're doing little better than rolling the dice. There's very little room for sensible system over such a strong self-preemtive opening. It's simply not possible to find your good slams and stay out of your bad ones on that start, and it's unproductive to chase after every missed slam or suboptimal strain you land in. If you are interested in a discussion on the relative merits of a number of treatments over 2♣ there's room to improve, but it will always remain a low accuracy auction. The first line of defence is not opening 2♣ whenever reasonable, in all honesty.

[kereru67]

 DavidKok, on 2024-December-05, 16:31, said:

There's at least four points here that I think should be addressed individually. I'll give it a shot:

• Would you like to be in slam, seeing both hands? I think 'yes', but I'd like to be in 6♣ (or perhaps 7♣). The nice fit means we can comfortably aim to ruff a heart, and then we're just fishing for a 13th trick. Even if 6NT scores better, the increased risk of failing to make the contract is decisive. However, I am being careful not to ask 'Should you be in slam?'. In general it is difficult to bid to the single dummy optimal contract, and you can well get to a poor contract even with neither player misbidding.
  
• How much is the East hand worth? A quick count shows 26 HCP per Milton Work, but the hand is significantly stronger than that. The hand is full of aces and kings (in fact, contains all the aces). It has an amazing five card suit. Even that ♠T is an unusually good asset in a hand where so many slots are already taken up by honours. I'd rate the hand to be worth closer to 28, and East has seriously underbid their hand by showing 25-26. What's more, this far in the tail of the HCP distribution, the lower end of the range is much more likely than the upper range. Even in the two-point range of 25-26 the distribution is approximately 70%-30% in favour of 25 HCP (based on 4,353,876 randomly generated hands, of which 1,000 were of the requisite shape and strength). So that's the strength partner will assume on close decisions. We're simply too strong for that.
  
• You mentioned that 4NT would be Blackwood (by which hand, actually?). I think instead it should be quantitative, on this auction and many others. Finding your combined strength and possibility of a fit takes priority over finding the number of aces. Many people abuse 4NT-as-a-gadget too often, and from the sound of it that may have hurt you on this deal.
  
• 2♣ auctions are a mess, even with great agreements. Not that there's a better alternative, mind you. But you have to accept that when you open 2♣, you're doing little better than rolling the dice. There's very little room for sensible system over such a strong self-preemtive opening. It's simply not possible to find your good slams and stay out of your bad ones on that start, and it's unproductive to chase after every missed slam or suboptimal strain you land in. If you are interested in a discussion on the relative merits of a number of treatments over 2♣ there's room to improve, but it will always remain a low accuracy auction. The first line of defence is not opening 2♣ whenever reasonable, in all honesty.

As far as Blackwood goes, that wouldn't come into play immediately after 2♦ since we have no suit agreement, making 4NT a good rebid showing about 27-28. However I'm not sure how many club players would understand this - most would probably take it as Blackwood/RKC. Another possible auction is 2♣-2♦-3♣-4♣-4NT-5♣-5NT-6♦ (or 6♠ if you show kings that way)-6NT. That works on these cards, but 3♣ could backfire if you end up in 6NT and partner only has a single king and 3-4 ♣.

[Zelandakh]

I would treat the East hand as 27 - it is probably worth more than that. As West, the easiest way is probably to respond 4S (Baron). East will continue with either 4NT (min), 5C (4+♣) or 6♣ (5♣) depending on the particulars of the system, and in the 4NT case, West can bid 5♣ to show 4 clubs. As for how to get to that point, in Europe using both 2♣ and 2♦ for strong hands is popular, meaning that you have many more options for NT rebids. But the better option comes in the form of something called a Kokish relay. This is a method where the auction 2♣ - 2♦; 2♥ (or 1♣ - 1♦; 1♥ in a strong club context) shows either hearts or a big balanced hand, allowing you to stay lower. So you end up with an auction like 2♣(!) - 2♦(!); 2♥(!) - 2♠(!); 2NT (25-27) - 4♠(!); 6♣, which I don't think is too difficult for the serious pairs. Other solutions are also possible but I think this is the simplest, despite 5 of the 7 calls being artificial.

[mike777]

I would back way up and start with
Just how strong is this hand, as others have said much more than 25-26 range then:
2c-2d (what does 2d promise?) if gf then
2c=2d=3c? what does 3c promise, a minimum hand type?
If long clubs and at most a 3 loser hand, then you can go forward from that.
Responder sees K of spades and 4 card support for partner's long clubs suit. 2 winners at least.
Don't stop before 6 clubs..

[kereru67]

 mike777, on 2024-December-05, 20:19, said:

I would back way up and start with
Just how strong is this hand, as others have said much more than 25-26 range then:
2c-2d (what does 2d promise?) if gf then
2c=2d=3c? what does 3c promise, a minimum hand type?
If long clubs and at most a 3 loser hand, then you can go forward from that.
Responder sees K of spades and 4 card support for partner's long clubs suit. 2 winners at least.
Don't stop before 6 clubs..

2♦ promises 0, but could also be done on a relative good hand with no good suit to show. 3♣ promises nothing beyond a 5 card suit, but the fact that E doesn't bid game immediately shows a desire to explore slam possibilities despite partner's negative, so it's probably better than a minimum. Possible responses by W are 3♠, 3NT and 4♣, of which I don't like 3NT because it is too negative and will likely end the auction. 3♠ would be welcome news to E but he might be expecting a 5 card suit. So I'd go for 4♣. E's options now are to do the Blackwood query but it might be better to just jump to 6♣ and be done with it. That might not work so well in a strong tourney where a lot of pairs will be bidding 6NT.

[smerriman]

I don't think I'd risk 2♣ - 2♦ - 3♣ as East, especially in a SAYC-like context. Sure, it's nice if you hear 4♣, but are you sure you have a way forward if partner makes any other bid, such as the most likely 3♦?

In this context I'd just show it as a balanced hand, but 25-26 is too much of an underbid; if that's what your 3NT rebid shows, then I guess it's a 4NT rebid, as horrible as that is (Kokish much preferable to keep the bidding lower.)

[jillybean]

2♣ 2♦ 3nt is an awful auction, I don't remember ever having the hand to bid 3nt.
After a 2♦ response can west show their cheapest/only A/K?
There's got to be a better way...

[DavidKok]

I think the Baron and 3♣ suggestions are both poor, as is treating the hand as 25-27. In my opinion these are great examples of resulting, i.e. people deciding the final contract first and the auction after.

2♣ openings are a mess, and everybody is all too ready to explain how they would of course not have had any problems. Funny how, at the club, people never quite seem to bid these hands well.

I deliberately did not offer a solution or a miracle cure, but instead suggest discussing 2♣ auctions in general.

P.S.: Eric Kokish called the convention he invented 'Birthright', even if his own name is the more popular one for it these days. Given the forum this is in I'm not sure it's very relevant though.

[kereru67]

 DavidKok, on 2024-December-06, 01:08, said:

I think the Baron and 3♣ suggestions are both poor, as is treating the hand as 25-27. In my opinion these are great examples of resulting, i.e. people deciding the final contract first and the auction after.

2♣ openings are a mess, and everybody is all too ready to explain how they would of course not have had any problems. Funny how, at the club, people never quite seem to bid these hands well.

I deliberately did not offer a solution or a miracle cure, but instead suggest discussing 2♣ auctions in general.

P.S.: Eric Kokish called the convention he invented 'Birthright', even if his own name is the more popular one for it these days. Given the forum this is in I'm not sure it's very relevant though.

I guarantee nobody at my club has heard of Kokish, I've never heard of it and I'm one of the better players there. Besides, as with all conventions, there are some hands where it doesn't work so well. I also guarantee that 99% of the people at my club would take 2♣-2♦-4NT as Blackwood, in which case I'd probably pass the 5♣ response and hope he has at least 3 of them rather than get into an unmakeable slam.

[mw64ahw]

At a basic level I can see club members stepping in with some sort of Gerber followed by showing controls etc. which may get you to your slam.


Perhaps a more sophisticated approach would be to adapt the Yellow Rose of Texas. Perhaps
2♣-2♦
3N-4♦ transfer
4♥-4♠ puppet to 4N (I play 4N as 4♠)
4N-5♦ 4234
6♣

[kereru67]

 mw64ahw, on 2024-December-06, 03:18, said:

At a basic level I can see club members stepping in with some sort of Gerber followed by showing controls etc. which may get you to your slam.


Perhaps a more sophisticated approach would be to adapt the Yellow Rose of Texas. Perhaps
2♣-2♦
3N-4♦ transfer
4♥-4♠ puppet to 4N (I play 4N as 4♠)
4N-5♦ 4234
6♣

Gerber gives me nightmares. To this day there are members of my club who think every 4♣ bid is "ace asking" (they don't even know the name "Gerber"). They've been mistaught from the moment they joined the club. So 1♣-dbl-4♣-pass-(Gerber response). Yes some of them really are that stupid.
-

[Cyberyeti]

I would have the choice of showing this as 26-27 or 28-29 via Kokish, and I think I would choose the former, partner bids 4N and I bid 6N treating it as 27.

As said before, 2♣ auctions are a mess, Kokish wins much more often than it loses.

[kereru67]

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-December-06, 03:51, said:

I would have the choice of showing this as 26-27 or 28-29 via Kokish, and I think I would choose the former, partner bids 4N and I bid 6N treating it as 27.

As said before, 2♣ auctions are a mess, Kokish wins much more often than it loses.

Is it any better if you start with Precision or other 1♣ system, or even a strong pass system? sooner or later E is going to express 3NT values and W will likely pass.

[mw64ahw]

 kereru67, on 2024-December-06, 04:31, said:

Is it any better if you start with Precision or other 1♣ system, or even a strong pass system? sooner or later E is going to express 3NT values and W will likely pass.

Playing a Multi 2♦ as well as 'reverse' Kokish gives you an extra level of bidding for the stronger hand. The advantage of 'reverse' Kokish is you can break the sequence to show a Bust hand and play a the 3 -level.
2♣-2♦-2♥-2♠-2N 20-21
2♣-2♦-2N 22-24/22-23
2♦-2M-2N 25-27/24-26

[Cyberyeti]

 kereru67, on 2024-December-06, 04:31, said:

Is it any better if you start with Precision or other 1♣ system, or even a strong pass system? sooner or later E is going to express 3NT values and W will likely pass.

It depends on the exact range you show, if you have 27-28 in your armory, partner will bid slam, 26-27 partner should invite. You definitely should show this hand as >26.

I'm not sure of the chronology, but Precision has its own version of Kokish which may have come first with 1♣-1♦-1♥ being hearts or balanced, and with the lower auction, I'm not sure where it gets to show this hand.

[steve2005]

6NT is way better than 50% so should be in 6NT at mp only at IMPS should you go for 6♣ if you can find it.

50% K♦ on side

else 33% 3-3 spades

else singleton or doubleton J♠ not sure but around 16%

Maybe around 75% overall, just an estimate

You could also, just play A♦ and play for singleton King or squeeze person with Jxxx ♠ and K♦

[steve2005]

With my wife we play 3NT opening as 27-28 so we would be ready, if we can remember. It has never come up lol.
2♣-2♦-3NT=25-26

These sorts of hands never come up so wouldn't worry too much at mp. At imps though they could win the match.

[mikeh]

Playing kokish/birthright in my regular partnership 2C 2D….2D promises at least one control (A=2, K =1) and establishes a gf…2H forcing 2S, 3N.

This shows 26+. All this talk of upgrading strikes me as a bit silly. Show me a bad 26-27, lol. Ok…don’t…yes it can exist but if you’re designing a system focused on differentiating bad 26 hcp hands from good ones….you’ve got way too much time on your hands!

But west can’t not look for slam now. He knows the partnership has 33+ hcp, which leaves few losers in partner’s hand and he has fillers plus a modest amount of shape. 4C is stayman…you have to play your notrump system on here or the game becomes impossible. The idea of west asking for aces is just silly….he’ll almost never know what to do with that information and meanwhile he loses transfers and stayman.

Over the 4D response, he offers a choice of slams via 5N and..bingo….6C

As I’m prone t saying, methods matter….and there’s a reason why serious pairs have complex agreements. It’s because many hands are almost unbiddable….or become exercises in guessing….without agreements. One might go years without this sequence but, when it arises, all that memory work is rewarded.

[smerriman]

 mikeh, on 2024-December-06, 13:22, said:

This shows 26+. All this talk of upgrading strikes me as a bit silly. Show me a bad 26-27, lol. Ok…don’t…yes it can exist but if you’re designing a system focused on differentiating bad 26 hcp hands from good ones….you’ve got way too much time on your hands!

But west can’t not look for slam now. He knows the partnership has 33+ hcp

32+ right? With exactly 32 more than half the time. With the OP's range being one point different, it was highly likely to be 31. Even if it's just quibbling about a single point, don't these tiny differences affect the odds of slam quite a bit?

(A quick double dummy sim suggests after a negative responsive to Stayman, opposite the OP's 25-26 you have a 51% chance of making slam, opposite an unlimited 25+ it's 60%, and opposite 26+ it's 77%, though I guess even that means you should be going forward either way.)