[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-June-01, 02:49, said:

Why not ? nobody's bid diamonds, and the guy on lead with the heart preempt is unlikely to have much in either, so could have a nasty decision

My point was just that if we exclude hearts and are lacking AK clubs, then it's over 70% they will find clubs anyway: 50% they have the A, ~10% they have KQ or will underlead K, 12.5% they have neither but guess right.
The hearts preempt swings it a bit, but not much.

[pescetom]

For us opposite that hand this would probably go:
1S-(3H)-3S
4D - 4H
5C - 5H
6C - 6S
P

I would not expect partner to bid the diamonds singleton opposite my obvious strength in diamonds and if she did I would probably jump to 7S imagining she figured out to show the Queen (would be embarrassing if it happened to make anyway).

[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2025-June-01, 08:21, said:

My point was just that if we exclude hearts and are lacking AK clubs, then it's over 70% they will find clubs anyway: 50% they have the A, ~10% they have KQ or will underlead K, 12.5% they have neither but guess right.
The hearts preempt swings it a bit, but not much.

No it isn't, the guy has bid 3♥ red v green, I would say there are very good odds he has nothing worth having in either suit, he may have the Q or J of clubs which might put him off leading those, iot would be unlucky if he had Q♦ and no club honour. There is not room for him to have say ♥AQ and club A or K, that's a 2♥ overcall. Yes he might have QJ10 7th and a club honour, but he will know I have a second suit and he could be establishing it, embarrassing to find me with ♣AQJxx and leading away from the K to allow me to ruff the third round in dummy.

[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-June-01, 08:42, said:

There is not room for him to have say ♥AQ and club A or K, that's a 2♥ overcall.

That's an assumption about style that I imagine is valid where you play, but not where I play. At this vulnerability the difference between 2♥ and 3♥ is more about length of suit than anything else, 3♥ could easily be a decent 7 card with club A or K and 2♥ is very unlikely to be 7 card however promising.

[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2025-June-01, 12:29, said:

That's an assumption about style that I imagine is valid where you play, but not where I play. At this vulnerability the difference between 2♥ and 3♥ is more about length of suit than anything else, 3♥ could easily be a decent 7 card with club A or K and 2♥ is very unlikely to be 7 card however promising.

How an earth do you bid with a good hand opposite if 3♥ is that variable. 3 hearts is never a better hand (in HCP terms) than 2♥ here.

[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-June-01, 13:39, said:

3 hearts is never a better hand (in HCP terms) than 2♥ here.

Nor is it here, but at this vulnerability it could easily be the same hand as 2♥ (or only slightly weaker) with a seventh heart.

[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2025-June-01, 15:11, said:

Nor is it here, but at this vulnerability it could easily be the same hand as 2♥ (or only slightly weaker) with a seventh heart.

How do you describe your jump overcalls ? AQJxxxx and an ace is clearly NOT weak

[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-June-02, 01:18, said:

How do you describe your jump overcalls ? AQJxxxx and an ace is clearly NOT weak

You are putting words into my mouth.
My point was that (say)
x KQxxxx xxx Axx is 2H
and
x KQxxxxx xx Axx is 3H.
One cannot deduce that 3H lacks club A or K.

[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2025-June-02, 02:40, said:

You are putting words into my mouth.
My point was that (say)
x KQxxxx xxx Axx is 2H
and
x KQxxxxx xx Axx is 3H.
One cannot deduce that 3H lacks club A or K.

OK, for us (and I know we're out on a limb here) the first hand is 3♥ or pass, the second is 3♥. Make it KQJ10xx and I might overcall 2♥.

My other point was that a club lead can be disastrous from A/Kxx