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Another awkward one

#21 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2025-June-01, 08:21

View PostCyberyeti, on 2025-June-01, 02:49, said:

Why not ? nobody's bid diamonds, and the guy on lead with the heart preempt is unlikely to have much in either, so could have a nasty decision


My point was just that if we exclude hearts and are lacking AK clubs, then it's over 70% they will find clubs anyway: 50% they have the A, ~10% they have KQ or will underlead K, 12.5% they have neither but guess right.
The hearts preempt swings it a bit, but not much.
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#22 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2025-June-01, 08:34

For us opposite that hand this would probably go:
1S-(3H)-3S
4D - 4H
5C - 5H
6C - 6S
P

I would not expect partner to bid the diamonds singleton opposite my obvious strength in diamonds and if she did I would probably jump to 7S imagining she figured out to show the Queen (would be embarrassing if it happened to make anyway).
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#23 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2025-June-01, 08:42

View Postpescetom, on 2025-June-01, 08:21, said:

My point was just that if we exclude hearts and are lacking AK clubs, then it's over 70% they will find clubs anyway: 50% they have the A, ~10% they have KQ or will underlead K, 12.5% they have neither but guess right.
The hearts preempt swings it a bit, but not much.


No it isn't, the guy has bid 3 red v green, I would say there are very good odds he has nothing worth having in either suit, he may have the Q or J of clubs which might put him off leading those, iot would be unlucky if he had Q and no club honour. There is not room for him to have say AQ and club A or K, that's a 2 overcall. Yes he might have QJ10 7th and a club honour, but he will know I have a second suit and he could be establishing it, embarrassing to find me with AQJxx and leading away from the K to allow me to ruff the third round in dummy.
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Posted 2025-June-01, 12:29

View PostCyberyeti, on 2025-June-01, 08:42, said:

There is not room for him to have say AQ and club A or K, that's a 2 overcall.

That's an assumption about style that I imagine is valid where you play, but not where I play. At this vulnerability the difference between 2 and 3 is more about length of suit than anything else, 3 could easily be a decent 7 card with club A or K and 2 is very unlikely to be 7 card however promising.
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#25 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2025-June-01, 13:39

View Postpescetom, on 2025-June-01, 12:29, said:

That's an assumption about style that I imagine is valid where you play, but not where I play. At this vulnerability the difference between 2 and 3 is more about length of suit than anything else, 3 could easily be a decent 7 card with club A or K and 2 is very unlikely to be 7 card however promising.


How an earth do you bid with a good hand opposite if 3 is that variable. 3 hearts is never a better hand (in HCP terms) than 2 here.
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Posted 2025-June-01, 15:11

View PostCyberyeti, on 2025-June-01, 13:39, said:

3 hearts is never a better hand (in HCP terms) than 2 here.

Nor is it here, but at this vulnerability it could easily be the same hand as 2 (or only slightly weaker) with a seventh heart.
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#27 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2025-June-02, 01:18

View Postpescetom, on 2025-June-01, 15:11, said:

Nor is it here, but at this vulnerability it could easily be the same hand as 2 (or only slightly weaker) with a seventh heart.


How do you describe your jump overcalls ? AQJxxxx and an ace is clearly NOT weak
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Posted 2025-June-02, 02:40

View PostCyberyeti, on 2025-June-02, 01:18, said:

How do you describe your jump overcalls ? AQJxxxx and an ace is clearly NOT weak

You are putting words into my mouth.
My point was that (say)
x KQxxxx xxx Axx is 2H
and
x KQxxxxx xx Axx is 3H.
One cannot deduce that 3H lacks club A or K.
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#29 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2025-June-02, 03:50

View Postpescetom, on 2025-June-02, 02:40, said:

You are putting words into my mouth.
My point was that (say)
x KQxxxx xxx Axx is 2H
and
x KQxxxxx xx Axx is 3H.
One cannot deduce that 3H lacks club A or K.


OK, for us (and I know we're out on a limb here) the first hand is 3 or pass, the second is 3. Make it KQJ10xx and I might overcall 2.

My other point was that a club lead can be disastrous from A/Kxx
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