[skjaeran]

Agree with 3♣ by north.

I pass that with the souht hand.

[Cascade]

I did some simulations and 5♣ (around 25-30%) is a more likely double dummy game than 3NT (around 15%).

The conditions were partner was 6-9/10 (I did two different simulations hence the range above) with a diamonds suit and hearts stopped.

3♣ was safe over 80% of the time.

Its getting close but I am not sure if this is enough for me to bid 3♣.

[han]

What does hearts stopped mean? Is Jxx a stopper? 10xxx?

[Cascade]

han, on Feb 27 2008, 11:55 AM, said:

What does hearts stopped mean? Is Jxx a stopper? 10xxx?

That's a good question.

I didn't include Jxx or 10xxx in the simulation but of course on some hands with those holdings and similar I would bid 1NT at the table. There is some compensation as I am sure there are some hands with Ax, Kx, Qxx etc which were included that I would have bid 2♣ rather than 1NT at the table. It is very hard to simulate exactly what a player would do at the table with every hand.

In the simulation I included hands with the ace, king-small, queen-third, jack-fourth.

[han]

That's not what I meant. Wayne was calculating the odds that we can make 5C with this hand given that partner bid 1D and 1NT. I think his parameters might have been to strict regarding the heart honors.

[Cascade]

han, on Feb 27 2008, 02:35 PM, said:

That's not what I meant. Wayne was calculating the odds that we can make 5C with this hand given that partner bid 1D and 1NT. I think his parameters might have been to strict regarding the heart honors.

I will redo including Qx, Jxx, 10xxx and maybe 10xx etc.

Ideally I'd like to exclude hands with club support with these dubious holdings.

I'll see how I go later on. I am away from home at the moment and will not be back home for about 5-6 hrs.

[han]

I guess it also depends on whether 1S showed an unbalanced hand or not. If it does then responder would more often bid 2C.

Another factor is how often responder would pass 1S with a poor 6-count.

[the hog]

Well 1NT shows 6-9. The chances of pd having the "right stuff" to make either 5C or, even more distant, 3NT a playable contract are extremely remote. Far more likely is that responder will look at her 9 count and bid 3NT as happened here. I think 3C is poor for that reason. Wayne's simulations support that.

[han]

25-30% is extremely remote? At IMPs? And that's the percentage of making 3C, we are 2 levels lower.

[the hog]

han, on Feb 27 2008, 12:22 PM, said:

25-30% is extremely remote? At IMPs? And that's the percentage of making 3C, we are 2 levels lower.

If you read Wayne's post, 5C is more likely to make than 3NT. 25% games at Imps are not a good proposition, and you are discounting the possible, (though somewhat unlikey with this C holding), penalty double.

[han]

Yes I did read Wayne's post, that's why I quoted from it. You said the chance that 5C or (even more distant) 3NT is a reasonable contract is extremely remote. Well, according to Wayne that chance is 25-30% which is not at all extremely remote. And of course, partner will pass with about the worst half of those hands, so when we actually get to game then the chance of making will be considerably higher.


(I made a typo in my post, I wrote 3C instead of 5C but I'm sure you knew what I meant)

[Cascade]

The numbers stayed roughly the same when i added in more tenuous stoppers. I didn't allow those stoppers when there was an alternative bid with a likely club fit or a six-card diamond suit.

[whereagles]

The_Hog, on Feb 27 2008, 05:06 AM, said:

Well 1NT shows 6-9. The chances of pd having the "right stuff" to make either 5C or, even more distant, 3NT a playable contract are extremely remote. Far more likely is that responder will look at her 9 count and bid 3NT as happened here. I think 3C is poor for that reason. Wayne's simulations support that.

While you are very, very right in this respect, I think it's still important to find out whether our hands fit into cascade's 20-25% category, so this is what one can do:

Bid 3♣ anyway and pull pard's 3NT (which we know to be ill-judged 'cos we're pretty weakish) to 4♣ and leave the final word to him.

[Cascade]

The_Hog, on Feb 27 2008, 06:29 PM, said:

han, on Feb 27 2008, 12:22 PM, said:

25-30% is extremely remote? At IMPs? And that's the percentage of making 3C, we are 2 levels lower.

If you read Wayne's post, 5C is more likely to make than 3NT. 25% games at Imps are not a good proposition, and you are discounting the possible, (though somewhat unlikey with this C holding), penalty double.

We are not in game yet.

25-30% game means blasting game now would be wrong but it easily could be right to make another move and have partner bid game with a suitable hand.

[mikeh]

whereagles, on Feb 27 2008, 05:49 AM, said:

The_Hog, on Feb 27 2008, 05:06 AM, said:

Well 1NT shows 6-9. The chances of pd having the "right stuff" to make either 5C or, even more distant, 3NT a playable contract are extremely remote. Far more likely is that responder will look at her 9 count and bid 3NT as happened here. I think 3C is poor for that reason. Wayne's simulations support that.

While you are very, very right in this respect, I think it's still important to find out whether our hands fit into cascade's 20-25% category, so this is what one can do:

Bid 3♣ anyway and pull pard's 3NT (which we know to be ill-judged 'cos we're pretty weakish) to 4♣ and leave the final word to him.

That approach is truly idiotic. If we don't trust our partner to evaluate correctly over 3♣, don't bid 3♣. If partner bids 3N on the hand she held, that was a mistake. But imagine how she would feel if she bid 3N on xx J10xx KJxxx Ax and you pulled to 4♣. Yes, 3N MAY go down, but it is a contract you need to be in at imps.

[Cascade]

Exactly 3♣ said we need a club card.

If partner bids 3NT I expect Ax opposite. Maybe stiff A occasionally.

[aisha759]

I PASS 3♣Try and play at 3am!!! Alex is right, you are all right, my bid is wrong..... so clear now, it took me 2 days to realise this........ and now Alex won't talk to me nor play with me......... ty all

[slothy]

aisha759, on Feb 27 2008, 04:38 PM, said:

I PASS 3♣Try and play at 3am!!! Alex is right, you are all right, my bid is wrong..... so clear now, it took me 2 days to realise this........ and now Alex won't talk to me nor play with me......... ty all

lol trying to make me out to be some retributive, sulky, bad guy???

i have talked to her and i will play with her...but maybe not at 3am in the morning

chill, hon. Have a cig and a lemonade. sana optum

Yalla

Dutch girl with clog fetish said:

IMHO Aisha was 60% right and Alex 40%. Of course I do not encourage Alex to quit bridge for that reason. Bridge is a lot more fun than gynecology and sword swallowing.

Bridge is fun, yes. Sword swallowing was never a past-time i pursued....i value my uvula too highly.

As for gynaecology As a man, i tend to disagree that it is not as fun as bridge. There are certain mysteries in the female form that i still strive to understand.

[pork rind]

just a curious question for the 2c bidders. if part had responded 1s, what would you bid?? its all hand evaluation i think
fwiw it is always a 3c bid for me and a pass from south.