[inquiry]

Submitted by Hanoi5

Bidding script: EW stay out of the auction

Hanoi comments: "Another hand where supporting with three cards could work, but in this case with 6 hearts it seems out of the question for opener to support spades. After the jump, however, South is definitely in trouble and the easy way out will turn out to be not the best option. 4S, 10; 5S, 8; 4H, 7; 6S/3NT, 4; 5H, 3"

---

Again, those are the author of the problem's suggested scoring, not necessarily the scores used.

[peachy]

5S should not be anywhere near the top score. Also the difference between 4S and 4H is not that great. If hearts don't split nicely, there will be trouble in both contracts, not just hearts.

[jdonn]

You keep making these claims of what you believe about the scoring without saying why. If 5♠ usually makes then it deserves a score close to what 4♠ gets. Do you think spades makes precisely 10 tricks (or less) a huge percentage of the time? Why that amount?

[awm]

It seems to me that the odds of 4♥ making and the odds of 5♠ making are pretty similar. Basically you need either the spade king onside or some well-behaving heart position. Obviously there are a number of ways to play the heart suit (especially in a 5♠ contract) and it's not obvious what's best, but I'd estimate that the odds of hearts "behaving" are probably about 50% in either strain. The upshot is that spades normally plays exactly one trick better.

Seems to me that 5♠ (and for that matter 4♥) make about 75% of the time (either spade finesse or hearts behaving nicely) so I'd give 5♠ 75% of the score for 4♠ plus 25% of the score for 4♥. I'd actually give 4♥ a lower score than Hanoi does, maybe something like:

4♠=10, 5♠=9, 4♥=6

3NT seems like it pretty much needs the spade finesse (and not clubs 5-3 offside with the top honors split). There is some chance at 10 tricks in 3NT when it makes, but not much chance at 11 tricks. I'd say that 3NT is worse than either spade contract but pretty close to 4♥, maybe 3NT=4. A 5♥ contract is almost always failing (and by a trick more than 4♥), so it's usually a bottom board unless you hit a magic position. I'd put it around 5♥=1 (i.e. 1/6 of the time you find hearts 3-3 and the spade hook on, and score the same as 4♥).

[kayin801]

I opened 1♠ light with the South hand, did anyone else do that?

[jdonn]

kayin801, on Sep 30 2010, 05:27 PM, said:

I opened 1♠ light with the South hand, did anyone else do that?

Me too. We ended in 4♠ when thankfully partner didn't hang me.

[tgoodwinsr]

We opened it, too, and ended in 4S.

[inquiry]

Four spades was easily reached. I started to lower the score for it a good bit, but i decided to leave it at the "nine" I had for it before the contest started.

4SS TimG/TgoodwinSr
4SS gnasher/catch22
4SS jdonn/gib
4SS sohcahtoa/east4evil
4SS hanp/jlall
4SS cherdano/rogerclee
4SS wackojack/flycycle
4SS bluecalm/redds
4SS MBodell/Javabean
4SS Karlson/threenobob
4HN peachy/Ig62
3NS awn/elianna
3NS olegru/driver733
6SN Hrothgar/Free
2HN bid_em_up/TylerE
2HN ant590/cryzeejim


Scores:
4S = 9
4H = 6
3N = 4
2H = 1
6H = 0

[JavaBean]

We opened a spade also; but with our aggressive strong-club style a pass would be out of the question so it's not as useful feedback for you

[kayin801]

Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went:

1♠-2♥
2♠-3♠
4♠-P

Though in our methods 2♥ and then 3♠ shows slam interest, so 4♠ was the ultimate STFU.

If you don't open 1♠ then you have to guess after P-1♥-1♠-2/3♥ unless you have a tool to show 3 card support.

It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower.

[hrothgar]

Does 6♠ really deserve a zero?

[Wackojack]

Opening 1♠ is automatic in our system.

1♠ 3♥ 3 card support good hearts limit Plus
3♠ min 4♥ good 6 card suit
4♠ no interest pass

[jdonn]

hrothgar, on Oct 1 2010, 10:17 AM, said:

Does 6♠ really deserve a zero?

I think it probably deserves 2 points. A bit worse than 2 finesses so maybe around 15-20%?

[JLOGIC]

kayin801, on Oct 1 2010, 09:37 AM, said:

Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went:

1♠-2♥
2♠-3♠
4♠-P

Though in our methods 2♥ and then 3♠ shows slam interest, so 4♠ was the ultimate STFU.

If you don't open 1♠ then you have to guess after P-1♥-1♠-2/3♥ unless you have a tool to show 3 card support.

It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower.

I don't understand this... opening 1S definitely helps you find spades but how does it help you stop lower? You might even miss game after 1H-1S-2H-p if both people go low, and I don't think you're ever getting to slam.

[bid_em_up]

JLOGIC, on Oct 1 2010, 04:35 PM, said:

You might even miss game after 1H-1S-2H-p if both people go low,

[kayin801]

JLOGIC, on Oct 1 2010, 01:35 PM, said:

kayin801, on Oct 1 2010, 09:37 AM, said:

Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went:

1♠-2♥
2♠-3♠
4♠-P

Though in our methods 2♥ and then 3♠ shows slam interest, so 4♠ was the ultimate STFU.

If you don't open 1♠ then you have to guess after P-1♥-1♠-2/3♥ unless you have a tool to show 3 card support.

It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower.

I don't understand this... opening 1S definitely helps you find spades but how does it help you stop lower? You might even miss game after 1H-1S-2H-p if both people go low, and I don't think you're ever getting to slam.

I thought that after S opened 1♠, unless they managed to really turn off North, North might drive to slam. Maybe North being slam interested makes no sense here, though I thought it should at least cross your mind.

[hanp]

Did you read JLOGIC's post at all? I can't follow the discussion.

[kayin801]

I did read his post, maybe I'm just too optimistic with my views on the hands on different auctions, and I was suggesting that.

[JLOGIC]

Yeah I think we are having a miscommunication.

I don't think it's unreasonable at all for north to think of slam after 1S-2H-2S, and I think your auction was a very good one.

I do think it would unreasonable for north to think of slam opposite a passed hand with no heart fit though. It seems like you need a perfecta like AK fifth of spades and the HK. I think after south passes, it's much more easy to create an auction where they don't get to GAME than it is to create an auction where they're thinking of slam.

For instance even after 1H 1S 3H 3S, I would just bid 4S with the north hand.

So I thought that overbidding early (opening) does not help you stay lower, but it helps you find game and helps you find the right fit (spades).

It doesn't really matter I just disagreed with the observation that opening helps you stay low.

[hanp]

JLOGIC, on Oct 1 2010, 04:44 PM, said:

For instance even after 1H 1S 3H 3S, I would just bid 4S with the north hand.

In fact, I think you did.