[gerry]

---

[the hog]

Stiff Heart.

[Phil]

A heart, only because I think dummy is hitting with 0=4=5=4, partner has 6=4=2=1 and declarer has 3=4=1=5. I'm not worried about exploiting partner's heart cards, since dummy's diamonds will provide pitches.

A spade is possible, not because we are cashing any tricks, but because we might be able to tap dummy profitably.

[MrAce]

To me its crystal clear ♥ lead.

I would really be disappointed if my pd had this hand and didnt lead ♥, regardless of the outcome.

[gnasher]

The heart distribution is a bit mysterious. RHO didn't make a negative double, so the hearts are presumably 4-5-3 around the table. That makes partner's bidding hard to understand - if he's 5-5 in the majors, why didn't he make a Michaels cue-bid, and why didn't he act over 4♣? Perhaps 1♠ was a psych.

The only legitimate explanation I can think of is that partner's heart are very poor, and all he has is some spade honours. Opposite a passed hand he had no interested in competing to a high level, and he was just trying to direct a spade lead.

I'm not sure how this affects the lead, though. It does suggest that the heart lead isn't necessary, because partner won't have ♥A. However, it's hard to see how forcing dummy will work either. Imagine that dummy is 0454 without ♣A, and declarer is 4315. We force dummy at trick one, declarer knocks out ♦A and we force him again. Now he can just play a club to the ace, ruff a third spade, and throw his last spade on a top diamond. Maybe we should just concede?

[mike777]

gnasher, on 2012-June-24, 02:08, said:

The heart distribution is a bit mysterious. RHO didn't make a negative double, so the hearts are presumably 4-5-3 around the table. That makes partner's bidding hard to understand - if he's 5-5 in the majors, why didn't he make a Michaels cue-bid, and why didn't he act over 4♣? Perhaps 1♠ was a psych.

The only legitimate explanation I can think of is that partner's heart are very poor, and all he has is some spade honours. Opposite a passed hand he had no interested in competing to a high level, and he was just trying to direct a spade lead.

I'm not sure how this affects the lead, though. It does suggest that the heart lead isn't necessary, because partner won't have ♥A. However, it's hard to see how forcing dummy will work either. Imagine that dummy is 0454 without ♣A, and declarer is 4315. We force dummy at trick one, declarer knocks out ♦A and we force him again. Now he can just play a club to the ace, ruff a third spade, and throw his last spade on a top diamond. Maybe we should just concede?

This is a very serious question...do you do all of this in tempo at the table or only here in the forum?

[Mbodell]

mike777, on 2012-June-24, 02:18, said:

This is a very serious question...do you do all of this in tempo at the table or only here in the forum?

How important is tempo on the opening lead? I'm not afraid to tank on the opening lead, it is hard enough to figure out the opening lead at the best of time, and it is often hard to know all that I may be considering. I treat opening lead as similar to playing to trick 1 for declarer and third in that it is not that unusual to plan the hand (even though you don't yet see the dummy, you are often trying to make sense of the bidding and the final contract, and planning the defense even with only knowing 13 cards).

[gnasher]

mike777, on 2012-June-24, 02:18, said:

This is a very serious question...do you do all of this in tempo at the table or only here in the forum?

I wish I had the ability and the discipline to do this sort of thinking at the table, but I don't. Or not very often, anyway.

I don't see why you think that tempo matters. Bridge is a thinking game. If I've got something to think about, I'll think. The UI is unlikely to matter on this deal.

[BunnyGo]

mike777, on 2012-June-24, 02:18, said:

This is a very serious question...do you do all of this in tempo at the table or only here in the forum?

I would hope I could consider all this at the table, I certainly try to.

As to the original question, I lead the diamond A. Following gnasher's line of thought, partner has 4+ hearts, 5+ spades, and I'm going to go for the diamond ruff. It's probably too aggressive, but I think there's a good reason behind it.

2nd choice is the heart.

spade a distant third.

[Mbodell]

I'm not sure heart is clear. We didn't double them, it isn't clear everyone is in 5♣, I'd think playing to set them would be enough. I expect to make, much of the time, both the ♦A and ♣K. If we lead a ♥, how do we expect partner to get in to lead a heart for us to ruff? And if he does, aren't we likely already setting him. For the heart lead to matter the overcaller must not have had AK of clubs, and the responder must, and our K must be able to be picked up, and partner needs a trick and to give us a ruff first before declarer is in to pickle our hand (so that is ♥A with partner and ♣A with responder). If the club A is with declarer and/or declarer plays dummy club A first round (like in a 10 card fit maybe to avoid ruff), then we can still fall back on heart if partner has the ♥A.

A spade could win on the rare chance that we have a slow spade trick (opps are 2-2 in spades) and also if we have a cashing immediate spade trick on a 3-1 (although we could very likely get this anyways after winning the diamond A) and also if it disrupts transportation (if there is the ruff in dummy) or if we don't tip declarer off to the heart break we may get a ruff after all if declarer crosses from dummy to hand in hearts twice (possibly to take advantage of finessing the hand that over called.

[mike777]

Mbodell, on 2012-June-24, 03:45, said:

I'm not sure heart is clear. We didn't double them, it isn't clear everyone is in 5♣, I'd think playing to set them would be enough. I expect to make, much of the time, both the ♦A and ♣K. If we lead a ♥, how do we expect partner to get in to lead a heart for us to ruff? And if he does, aren't we likely already setting him. For the heart lead to matter the overcaller must not have had AK of clubs, and the responder must, and our K must be able to be picked up, and partner needs a trick and to give us a ruff first before declarer is in to pickle our hand (so that is ♥A with partner and ♣A with responder). If the club A is with declarer and/or declarer plays dummy club A first round (like in a 10 card fit maybe to avoid ruff), then we can still fall back on heart if partner has the ♥A.

A spade could win on the rare chance that we have a slow spade trick (opps are 2-2 in spades) and also if we have a cashing immediate spade trick on a 3-1 (although we could very likely get this anyways after winning the diamond A) and also if it disrupts transportation (if there is the ruff in dummy) or if we don't tip declarer off to the heart break we may get a ruff after all if declarer crosses from dummy to hand in hearts twice (possibly to take advantage of finessing the hand that over called.

and you think and typo all of this in ten seconds?

or unlimited time?

if more than ten/20 seconds you really need to tell us.....or say nothing

[BunnyGo]

mike777, on 2012-June-24, 04:03, said:

and you think and typo all of this in ten seconds?

or unlimited time?

if more than ten/20 seconds you really need to tell us.....or say nothing

You seem to be obsessed with "how long to figure this out", there are several opening leads a session where I take 30+ seconds to put a card on the table; I don't think this is unusual either.

[gnasher]

This is a forum for discussing bridge, not a bridge simulator. You can assume that anything I say here took longer to think about than I would take over the same decision at the bridge table.

[nige1]

IMO ♠ = 10, ♣ = 9, ♥ = 8 .♦ = 6. Worried that a ♥ lead may wrap up partner's heart holding for declarer.

[Phil]

gnasher, on 2012-June-24, 02:08, said:

The heart distribution is a bit mysterious. RHO didn't make a negative double, so the hearts are presumably 4-5-3 around the table. That makes partner's bidding hard to understand - if he's 5-5 in the majors, why didn't he make a Michaels cue-bid, and why didn't he act over 4♣? Perhaps 1♠ was a psych.

The only legitimate explanation I can think of is that partner's heart are very poor, and all he has is some spade honours. Opposite a passed hand he had no interested in competing to a high level, and he was just trying to direct a spade lead.

I'm not sure how this affects the lead, though. It does suggest that the heart lead isn't necessary, because partner won't have ♥A. However, it's hard to see how forcing dummy will work either. Imagine that dummy is 0454 without ♣A, and declarer is 4315. We force dummy at trick one, declarer knocks out ♦A and we force him again. Now he can just play a club to the ace, ruff a third spade, and throw his last spade on a top diamond. Maybe we should just concede?

You'd make a negative x with 3415 and values for an opening?

[gnasher]

Phil, on 2012-June-25, 05:04, said:

You'd make a negative x with 3415 and values for an opening?

It would depend on the suits and the spade holding.

But do we think RHO has an opening hand? LHO has bid quite strongly and RHO hasn't made any slam try. Hence I would expect that RHO has about a 10- or 11-count. With that sort of strength, everyone would make a negative double rather than bidding 2♣.

[billw55]

I lead heart and expect to set 5♣. I seem to have the textbook hand for leading a singleton: unbid suit, both ops probably hold a few, I have a trump entry with a spare for ruffing, I can reasonably hope for an entry to partner (♠A or ♦K).

[Phil]

gnasher, on 2012-June-25, 08:01, said:

It would depend on the suits and the spade holding.

But do we think RHO has an opening hand? LHO has bid quite strongly and RHO hasn't made any slam try. Hence I would expect that RHO has about a 10- or 11-count. With that sort of strength, everyone would make a negative double rather than bidding 2♣.

Sure, but we (well, me anyway) are already inferring LHO has a spade void, so I'm not sure overall how stronger LHO needs to be to jump. Void, Kxxx, KQxxx QJxx would qualify.

[Statto]

mike777, on 2012-June-24, 02:18, said:

This is a very serious question...do you do all of this in tempo at the table or only here in the forum?

Just a few seconds for me. We have a good chance of getting in with ♣K (or ♦A) and then leading a ♠ to partner's Ace for a ♥ ruff. Spades are going nowhere for now.

[gerry]

As gnasher suspected this question came about because 1♠ was a psyche and NS accused west of fielding it. When asked my opinion I said I thought a heart was normal and most would choose it.