Lead, mp Pard's suit or a stiff?
#1
Posted 2012-June-22, 19:07
The shepherd drives the wolf from the sheep's throat for which the sheep thanks the shepherd as a liberator, while the wolf denounces him for the same act as the destroyer of of liberty.
-A. Lincoln
#2
Posted 2012-June-23, 00:46
#3
Posted 2012-June-23, 09:37
A spade is possible, not because we are cashing any tricks, but because we might be able to tap dummy profitably.
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#4
Posted 2012-June-23, 18:57
I would really be disappointed if my pd had this hand and didnt lead ♥, regardless of the outcome.
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#5
Posted 2012-June-24, 02:08
The only legitimate explanation I can think of is that partner's heart are very poor, and all he has is some spade honours. Opposite a passed hand he had no interested in competing to a high level, and he was just trying to direct a spade lead.
I'm not sure how this affects the lead, though. It does suggest that the heart lead isn't necessary, because partner won't have ♥A. However, it's hard to see how forcing dummy will work either. Imagine that dummy is 0454 without ♣A, and declarer is 4315. We force dummy at trick one, declarer knocks out ♦A and we force him again. Now he can just play a club to the ace, ruff a third spade, and throw his last spade on a top diamond. Maybe we should just concede?
#6
Posted 2012-June-24, 02:18
gnasher, on 2012-June-24, 02:08, said:
The only legitimate explanation I can think of is that partner's heart are very poor, and all he has is some spade honours. Opposite a passed hand he had no interested in competing to a high level, and he was just trying to direct a spade lead.
I'm not sure how this affects the lead, though. It does suggest that the heart lead isn't necessary, because partner won't have ♥A. However, it's hard to see how forcing dummy will work either. Imagine that dummy is 0454 without ♣A, and declarer is 4315. We force dummy at trick one, declarer knocks out ♦A and we force him again. Now he can just play a club to the ace, ruff a third spade, and throw his last spade on a top diamond. Maybe we should just concede?
This is a very serious question...do you do all of this in tempo at the table or only here in the forum?
#7
Posted 2012-June-24, 03:18
mike777, on 2012-June-24, 02:18, said:
How important is tempo on the opening lead? I'm not afraid to tank on the opening lead, it is hard enough to figure out the opening lead at the best of time, and it is often hard to know all that I may be considering. I treat opening lead as similar to playing to trick 1 for declarer and third in that it is not that unusual to plan the hand (even though you don't yet see the dummy, you are often trying to make sense of the bidding and the final contract, and planning the defense even with only knowing 13 cards).
#8
Posted 2012-June-24, 03:25
mike777, on 2012-June-24, 02:18, said:
I wish I had the ability and the discipline to do this sort of thinking at the table, but I don't. Or not very often, anyway.
I don't see why you think that tempo matters. Bridge is a thinking game. If I've got something to think about, I'll think. The UI is unlikely to matter on this deal.
#9
Posted 2012-June-24, 03:26
mike777, on 2012-June-24, 02:18, said:
I would hope I could consider all this at the table, I certainly try to.
As to the original question, I lead the diamond A. Following gnasher's line of thought, partner has 4+ hearts, 5+ spades, and I'm going to go for the diamond ruff. It's probably too aggressive, but I think there's a good reason behind it.
2nd choice is the heart.
spade a distant third.
Never tell the same lie twice. - Elim Garek on the real moral of "The boy who cried wolf"
#10
Posted 2012-June-24, 03:45
A spade could win on the rare chance that we have a slow spade trick (opps are 2-2 in spades) and also if we have a cashing immediate spade trick on a 3-1 (although we could very likely get this anyways after winning the diamond A) and also if it disrupts transportation (if there is the ruff in dummy) or if we don't tip declarer off to the heart break we may get a ruff after all if declarer crosses from dummy to hand in hearts twice (possibly to take advantage of finessing the hand that over called.
#11
Posted 2012-June-24, 04:03
Mbodell, on 2012-June-24, 03:45, said:
A spade could win on the rare chance that we have a slow spade trick (opps are 2-2 in spades) and also if we have a cashing immediate spade trick on a 3-1 (although we could very likely get this anyways after winning the diamond A) and also if it disrupts transportation (if there is the ruff in dummy) or if we don't tip declarer off to the heart break we may get a ruff after all if declarer crosses from dummy to hand in hearts twice (possibly to take advantage of finessing the hand that over called.
and you think and typo all of this in ten seconds?
or unlimited time?
if more than ten/20 seconds you really need to tell us.....or say nothing
#12
Posted 2012-June-24, 04:30
mike777, on 2012-June-24, 04:03, said:
or unlimited time?
if more than ten/20 seconds you really need to tell us.....or say nothing
You seem to be obsessed with "how long to figure this out", there are several opening leads a session where I take 30+ seconds to put a card on the table; I don't think this is unusual either.
Never tell the same lie twice. - Elim Garek on the real moral of "The boy who cried wolf"
#13
Posted 2012-June-24, 15:52
#14
Posted 2012-June-24, 22:29
#15
Posted 2012-June-25, 05:04
gnasher, on 2012-June-24, 02:08, said:
The only legitimate explanation I can think of is that partner's heart are very poor, and all he has is some spade honours. Opposite a passed hand he had no interested in competing to a high level, and he was just trying to direct a spade lead.
I'm not sure how this affects the lead, though. It does suggest that the heart lead isn't necessary, because partner won't have ♥A. However, it's hard to see how forcing dummy will work either. Imagine that dummy is 0454 without ♣A, and declarer is 4315. We force dummy at trick one, declarer knocks out ♦A and we force him again. Now he can just play a club to the ace, ruff a third spade, and throw his last spade on a top diamond. Maybe we should just concede?
You'd make a negative x with 3415 and values for an opening?
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#16
Posted 2012-June-25, 08:01
Phil, on 2012-June-25, 05:04, said:
It would depend on the suits and the spade holding.
But do we think RHO has an opening hand? LHO has bid quite strongly and RHO hasn't made any slam try. Hence I would expect that RHO has about a 10- or 11-count. With that sort of strength, everyone would make a negative double rather than bidding 2♣.
#17
Posted 2012-June-25, 09:15
-gwnn
#18
Posted 2012-June-25, 11:29
gnasher, on 2012-June-25, 08:01, said:
But do we think RHO has an opening hand? LHO has bid quite strongly and RHO hasn't made any slam try. Hence I would expect that RHO has about a 10- or 11-count. With that sort of strength, everyone would make a negative double rather than bidding 2♣.
Sure, but we (well, me anyway) are already inferring LHO has a spade void, so I'm not sure overall how stronger LHO needs to be to jump. Void, Kxxx, KQxxx QJxx would qualify.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#19
Posted 2012-June-25, 22:32
mike777, on 2012-June-24, 02:18, said:
Just a few seconds for me. We have a good chance of getting in with ♣K (or ♦A) and then leading a ♠ to partner's Ace for a ♥ ruff. Spades are going nowhere for now.
#20
Posted 2012-June-26, 19:29
The shepherd drives the wolf from the sheep's throat for which the sheep thanks the shepherd as a liberator, while the wolf denounces him for the same act as the destroyer of of liberty.
-A. Lincoln