Posted 2012-June-09, 16:33
I think this is a really hard problem. I would strongly consider playing a heart. I don't even know how to solve it. A problem with a spade is that we might get forced to break a minor or play a heart later when we don't want to. E.G. we set up the spades, and then are put in. This is on top of the obvious problem with a spade that declarer may have AQ, and now we've blown a trick while not setting up our long suit, have given dummy an entry, and have the same getting endplayed issues later, which is very bad.
A heart is really dangerous too, we are giving declarer the tempo to drive a minor while also giving him a trick for sure. Our entries are also probably slow, which gives declarer even more of a tempo advantage. Ugh.
I do not know how to simulate this or figure it out. I'm just gonna go with I don't like giving up a trick 100 % unless I know it's right/I have fast entries, so I'll play a spade. GAMB00000000L.